Ida nears New Orleans
As Hurricane Ida approaches, National Weather Service warns area could be ‘unlivable’ for some time in aftermath of storm
The rapidly intensifying hurricane threatens much of the Gulf Coast. Officials are predicting areas will become unlivable for weeks due to lack of power.
Hurricane Ida swiftly intensified Saturday as it churned ever closer to crashing ashore along the Louisiana coast Sunday afternoon. The storm poses a serious threat to New Orleans and numerous other population centers along the northern Gulf Coast and even well inland.
The storm’s peak winds leaped from 85 to 105 mph in just six hours Saturday, as it grew into a Category 2 hurricane. By Sunday, the National Hurricane Center predicted it could strengthen to “potentially catastrophic” Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds.
The storm’s track also shifted slightly to the east Saturday, increasing the possibility the storm’s core of dangerous hurricane-force winds scrapes New Orleans.
The powerhouse storm will push ashore an “extremely life-threatening” ocean surge of up to 10 to 15 feet above normally dry land at the coast in southeast Louisiana, the Hurricane Center warned. “Catastrophic wind damage” is possible close to where the storm comes ashore while “considerable” inland flooding from up to 20 inches of rain is also predicted.
“Please understand this, there is the possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be without power for weeks,” the National Weather Service in New Orleans wrote Saturday night. “We have all seen the destruction and pain caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this level and if it doesn’t happen then we should all count our blessings.”
Tropical storm-force winds could reach southeast Louisiana by the predawn hours Sunday, with deteriorating conditions expected thereafter into early Monday.
The worst, most extreme conditions are probable between midmorning and early evening Sunday.
New Orleans is under a hurricane warning that stretches from Louisiana’s central coast to the border with Mississippi. Storm surge warnings stretch from Louisiana’s central coast to the Alabama-Florida border, including Mobile Bay.
Forecasters are extremely concerned about Ida’s potential to explosively intensify as it passes over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Some of the warmest waters in the gulf are found immediately along the coastline, meaning Ida will probably continue to strengthen until landfall.
Studies have shown that warming sea surface temperatures due to human-caused climate change have increased the likelihood of rapid strengthening of tropical storm systems.
Ida’s landfall is forecast on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina striking Louisiana, and it could be even more intense than that historic storm. However, after Katrina, a $14.5 billion flood-protection system was constructed around New Orleans that is expected to be much more effective in keeping storm waters from inundating the city. Katrina was also an enormous storm, which allowed it to push more water ashore. Ida is somewhat more compact, although it is predicted to expand.
“There’s been a $15 billion investment in the system over the last 16 years, and we are in a far better place than we were in 2005,” said Collin Arnold, director of the New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, on CNN on Saturday. “That being said, this is still a very dangerous storm.”
New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell on Friday issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents outside the city’s levee system, where the surge could reach 11 feet, and called for voluntary evacuations elsewhere in the city.
Due to the storm’s predicted rapid strengthening, Cantrell said it was too late for a mandatory evacuation for areas inside the levee protection system. Instead, she instructed residents to voluntarily evacuate if they can or to shelter in place. “People need to be in their safe spaces by and no later than midnight tomorrow [12 a.m. Sunday],” she said.
In addition to New Orleans, several counties in southeast Louisiana called for mandatory and voluntary evacuations Friday ahead of the storm. A mandatory evacuation order was also issued for Hancock County in coastal Mississippi.
Last year, Louisiana was slammed by three hurricanes, including Category 4 Laura in August, and Delta and Zeta in October. The three storms caused roughly $27 billion in damage.
Ida is hitting while Louisiana sees a surge in coronavirus cases: On average, more than 4,000 new cases per day have been reported over the past week, with a 10.5 percent increase in deaths.
The Biden administration is sending a surge response team of 50 FEMA paramedics to the state and prepositioning personnel, food, water and generators ahead of the storm.
The most reliable models predict that
Ida will make landfall Sunday afternoon or evening southwest of New Orleans, nearly due south of Houma, La., although slight shifts in the track are possible. Storm impacts from wind and flooding will expand hundreds of miles beyond the storm’s center.
The core of the storm could pass directly over Houma and Baton Rouge and very close to New Orleans, Morgan City and Lafayette, with devastating wind and rain that produces widespread downed trees, power outages and flooding. Josh Eachus, chief meteorologist for Baton Rouge’s ABC affiliate, called for an “18-hour window of some of the worst weather our city has experienced in years.”
Biloxi and Gulfport, Miss., and Mobile, Ala., could also see serious impacts from coastal flooding, rain and wind, although conditions will be less severe compared to those in Louisiana.
Ida’s remnants could even prove problematic far inland, dropping a swath of heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes across parts of the South, the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic.
At 8 p.m. Saturday, Ida had 105-mph peak winds as it headed to the northwest at 16 mph, centered 285 miles southeast of Houma. Its maximum winds had increased by 20 mph since 11 a.m.
The storm was tapping into a powder keg oceanic and atmospheric setup with virtually nothing holding it back.