NFL WEEK 14 PICKS
Texans (1-10-1) at Cowboys (9-3)
11 a.m., Fox
Line: Cowboys -17 | Total: 45 This is the biggest spread of the entire season thus far, so it might be tempting to think the Texans could sneak in a backdoor cover. Before you take this pile of points, though, please direct your attention to last week’s box score, where the 11-point-favorite Cowboys led the Colts, 21-19, at the start of the fourth quarter and proceeded to score 33 unanswered points. That 54-19 win brought Dallas’ scoring average to 39.8 points per game over the past five games. Pick: Cowboys -17
Kansas City (9-3) at Broncos (3-9)
2:05 p.m., CBS
Line: Broncos +9.5 | Total: 43 This was scheduled as a quarterback duel but the Broncos’ defense remains the team’s main draw this season. Kansas City owns the league’s highest scoring offense (29.2 points per game) and Denver has the lowest scoring offense (13.8), but the difference may come from Kansas City’s defense, which gives up an average of 237.3 passing yards per game. Pick: Broncos +9.5
Buccaneers (6-6) at 49ers (8-4)
2:25 p.m., Fox
Line: 49ers -3.5 | Total: 37 First Trey Lance, now Jimmy Garoppolo? After their first two quarterbacks went down, the 49ers are now relying on their third-string quarterback, Brock Purdy, a seventh-round draft pick.
Statistically the 49ers and Buccaneers match up well: two top-10 defenses and middling offenses. Pick: Buccaneers +3.5
Dolphins (8-4) at Chargers (6-6)
6:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Chargers +3 | Total: 52 This is a showdown between two 2020 draft classmates, who have been responsible for some of the NFL’s most explosive plays. Justin Herbert was one of the top deep passers in the league last season. Tua Tagovailoa gets dazzling yards after catch from his stellar receivers: He leads the NFL among qualified quarterbacks in yards gained per pass attempt. Pick: Dolphins -3
Patriots (6-6) at Cardinals (4-8)
6:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN Line: Cardinals +1 | Total: 44.5 The Patriots are on the postseason bubble, having lost to the Bills and the Vikings, two defeats that knocked New England’s playoff chances down to 18 percent, but the good news is the Cardinals seem to hate playing at home. Arizona has lost 11 of its past 12 home games. That’s part of the reason 90 percent of the money wagered so far has come in on the Patriots, who are slight road favorites. Pick: Patriots -1
OTHER GAMES
Jets (7-5) at Bills (9-3)
11 a.m.
Line: Bills -9.5 | Total: 44 The Jets had multiple opportunities to win against Minnesota last week and couldn’t close out. They settled for five field goals on Sunday, and they have scored touchdowns on just four of 14 trips to the red zone in their last four games. The Bills average a league-high 34 points per game at home, and their red zone defense is the third best in the league. Pick: Bills -9.5
Eagles (11-1) at Giants (7-4-1)
11 a.m.
Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 45.5 The Eagles’ “can’t stop the run” defense might have been patched up. Jordan Davis is back in the lineup, and veteran Ndamukong Suh looks to have worked his way into the fold. They held Derrick Henry to 30 yards in a rout of the Titans last week. This week, the Eagles visit the Giants, who like to keep games close. Pick: Giants +7
Browns (5-7) at Bengals (8-4)
11 a.m.
Line: Bengals -6 | Total: 47 Ja’Marr Chase was back in the Bengals lineup and helped lead Cincinnati to its third-straight win against K.C. Now he should be able to help Joe Burrow get his first career win over the Browns, who somehow put up 27 points on the Texans last week without an offensive touchdown. Pick: Bengals -6
Vikings (10-2) at Lions (5-7)
11 a.m.
Line: Lions -2 | Total: 53.5 The Lions are 4-1 in their past five games and are holding opponents to 19.8 points per game in that stretch. Compare that to their first seven games, when the Lions defense was giving up an average of 32.1 points per game.
Minnesota’s defense gives up the most passing yards per attempt in the league. Pick: Lions -2
Jaguars (4-8) at Titans (7-5)
11 a.m.
Line: Titans -3.5 | Total: 41.5 The Titans fired their general manager, Jon Robinson, after the team lost two games in a row, even though Tennessee is on track to win the AFC South for the third straight season. Jacksonville, which will need to beat the Titans twice in its last five games to have any shot at the playoffs, has lost 22 of its last 23 games on the road. Pick: Titans -3.5
Ravens (8-4) at Steelers (5-7)
11 a.m.
Line: Steelers -2.5 | Total: 37 Last season when the Ravens were 8-4, Lamar Jackson hurt his ankle and Baltimore didn’t win another game all season. This week, Jackson is likely to be out with a sprained posterior cruciate ligament, with Tyler Huntley filling in. Even without Jackson, the Ravens defense is good enough this year to beat the Steelers, who only average 17.8 points per game. Pick: Ravens +2.5
Panthers (4-8) at Seahawks (7-5)
2:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -3.5 | Total: 43.5
The Seahawks are nothing if not efficient. Geno Smith has the best completion percentage in the NFL, the team averages 244.4 passing yards per game, and Seattle’s 26.5 points per game is the fifth-highest in the league but has struggled on defense. Carolina hasn’t won a game on the road yet this season. Pick: Seahawks -3.5