WEEK 17 NFL PICKS
For many NFL teams, these last two weeks of the regular season are crucial — either to their playoff hopes and seeding, or to securing future draft picks.
The Bills are clinging to the AFC’s top seed, which would give Buffalo homefield advantage in the playoffs, but they need to keep winning in order to prevent another January trek to Arrowhead Stadium.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are facing the left-for-dead Houston Texans, in a matchup that means nothing to most NFL fans but could help determine whether Jacksonville can push Tennessee out of the running for the AFC South crown.
Chicago could be angling for the top draft pick but won’t shut down Justin Fields or roll over for the Detroit Lions, while Las Vegas is pulling the plug on Derek Carr with two games remaining.
Predicting which teams will win these final regular-season matchups is as much about assessing their goals as it is about evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. After all, what good is a strength if it is sitting on the bench?
Broncos (4-11) at Kansas City (12-3)
11 a.m., CBS
Line: Kansas City -13.5 | Total: 44.5 In what had to be a low point in a miserable season, Denver lost to the Los Angeles Rams, 51-14, on Christmas Day, a loss so bad that Patrick from SpongeBob SquarePants on the Nickelodeon broadcast even roasted the Broncos. By Monday, the team had fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett and replaced him with Jerry Rosburg, the coach brought in to help Hackett manage the clock. For his first game as interim coach, Rosburg gets Kansas City, playing some of the best football in the league.
Pick: Broncos +13.5
49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9)
2:05 p.m., Fox
Line: Raiders +8.5 | Total: 44.5
The 49ers might have the best pass rush in the NFL right now, and with the defense thriving, Brock Purdy has been able to play fairly conservatively in three wins as the starter.
The Raiders have apparently given up on Derek Carr, who threw nine interceptions in his past five games. Coach Josh McDaniels said Wednesday he planned to bench Carr for the rest of the season, a sign that the team may cut the quarterback at season’s end. Pick: 49ers -8.5
Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8)
2:25 p.m., CBS
Line: Packers -3.5 | Total: 47 Against all odds, the Packers are still alive in the playoff race. Winner of three straight, Green Bay enters Sunday’s game tied with the Lions and Seattle Seahawks and just outside of a wild-card spot. Though the Packers play the final two divisional games at home and began the week as favorites in this one, the Vikings are on an improbable run of close wins: Minnesota is 11-0 in one-possession games this season, the most such wins in NFL history.
The Packers are having a hard time stopping the run, and Dalvin Cook has been potent against them in the past. It would be tough to pick Green Bay winning by four against the luckiest team in the NFL at full strength, but Packers rookie receiver Christian Watson injured his hip last week and is questionable for this game, so we’re taking the “underdog.” Pick: Vikings +3.5
Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5)
6:20 p.m., NBC
Line: Ravens -3 | Total: 35.5
The NFL flexed this AFC North rivalry game to prime time in anticipation of either team’s ability to play spoiler. The Ravens have clinched but need wins to retake the division from the Cincinnati Bengals. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has never finished with a losing record in any of his previous 15 seasons as head coach of the Steelers, and Pittsburgh needs to win its final two to keep that streak alive.
Much of what happens Sunday night hinges on Baltimore’s quarterback situation. John Harbaugh has been coy about whether or not Lamar Jackson will return to the lineup this week after resting a sprained knee. Even if Jackson is healthy, it is conceivable that the Ravens keep him benched until the playoffs and start Tyler Huntley again. If they do, this will be a close battle between two formidable defenses. If Jackson plays, it could be a rout. Pick: Ravens -3
Bills (12-3) at Bengals (11-4)
6:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN, ABC Line: Bengals +1.5 | Total: 49.5 With Buffalo fighting to fend off Kansas City for the AFC’s top seed, and Cincinnati trying to stave off Baltimore in the AFC North, this should be a competitive, fun game between two of the best teams in the NFL. We’re trusting the home underdogs to cover. Pick: Bengals +1.5
Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8)
11 a.m.
Line: Patriots -3 | Total: 42
Both of these teams are limping toward the end of the regular season. New England has lost four of their past five, and the offense has regressed enough there are rumors of a shake-up coming to Bill Belichick’s staff.
Miami has lost four in a row, and coach Mike McDaniel announced Wednesday he planned to start Teddy Bridgewater in place of Tua Tagovailoa, who self reported concussion symptoms after last week’s loss to the Packers. Bridgewater is capable of throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and might even fare better than Tagovailoa did against the press coverage in the past two weeks. Pick: Dolphins +3
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8)
11 a.m.
Line: Buccaneers -3 | Total: 39
The Buccaneers will clinch the NFC South with a win, but they face a Panthers team highly motivated to keep that from happening. Despite trading Christian McCaffrey early in the season, Carolina still has a rushing game Tampa Bay should envy: D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard help the team put up an average of 187 rushing yards per game since Week 12 (the Buccaneers averaged 90 in that stretch).
The Buccaneers have stayed on top of this division by grinding out ugly wins against bad teams, needing miraculous late-game scores to come out on top. Pick: Panthers +3
Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2)
11 a.m.
Line: Eagles -7 | Total: 43.5
There are just enough question marks surrounding the Eagles to give New Orleans a hope and half a prayer in this one. Philadelphia lost star offensive tackle Lane Johnson for at least two weeks with an abdominal injury, and rookie nose tackle Jordan Davis’ status was up in the air as he was being evaluated for a concussion. The Eagles have had the division clinched for weeks, so Jalen Hurts could rest his sprained throwing shoulder for this one.
The pitiable NFC South race still isn’t settled, and if New Orleans wins their final two (and the Buccaneers lose their final two), the Saints could sneak into the playoffs. It’s probably too much to hope for, but staying within a touchdown while trying to pull off a miracle against a banged up Eagles? That’s within their grasp. Pick: Saints +7
Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10)
11 a.m.
Line: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 41
Both teams are out of contention, so the only thing riding on this game for either franchise is draft order. Desmond Ridder may relish another shot at showing off his value to Atlanta. Pick: Falcons -3.5
Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8)
11 a.m.
Line: Lions -6 | Total: 52
Just when the Lions defense was starting to look like it might be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, the Panthers put up a franchise-record 570 yards against it in Week 16. Detroit is ahead of Green Bay on points in the NFC North and still has a shot at the second wild-card spot but needs to take care of Chicago first. The Bears could slide ahead of Houston in the race for the No. 1 overall draft pick, but Matt Eberflus said Monday the team had no plans of shutting down Justin Fields the rest of the way. Still, if the Lions can’t win at home in this spot, the Curse of Bobby Layne may be real. Pick: Lions -6
Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1)
11 a.m.
Line: Giants -5 | Total: 39
The Colts didn’t convert a single third down in their 20-3 loss to the Chargers last week, the second time that’s happened this season. The highest-paid offensive line in football let Nick Foles get sacked seven times and pressured into throwing three interceptions. Pick: Giants -5
Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1)
11 a.m.
Line: Commanders -2.5 | Total: 40
In the hopes of generating its red-zone offense — and clinging to a wild-card spot — the Commanders this week tabbed Carson Wentz as the starter again after going 0-2-1 in the past three games behind Taylor Heinicke. The Browns were eliminated last week, and this game may not mean much for Cleveland’s season, but Deshaun Watson will use these final two games to gain the team’s confidence. If they start to click, an upset is possible. Pick: Browns +2.5
Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1)
11 a.m.
Line: Texans +4 | Total: 44
The Jaguars enter Sunday’s game with the same record as the Titans in the AFC South, and have a full head of steam after beating four of their past five opponents. With the league’s 11th most efficient offense, Jacksonville shouldn’t have trouble with this one. Pick: Jaguars -4
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8)
2:05 p.m.
Line: Seahawks +2.5 | Total: 42
The Seahawks have lost five of their past six and dropped their shot at winning the NFC West in the process. These two bubble teams match up well: Seattle’s offense is good enough to test the Jets’ staunch defense, and the Jets’ offense is just as inept as the Seahawks’ defense. We’ll take the team that can actually manage to score. Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Rams (5-10) at Chargers (9-6)
2:25 p.m.
Line: Chargers -6.5 | Total: 40.5 While the number of tickets bet on this game has been evenly split, more than 95% of the money is on the Rams, who scored on nearly every drive of last week’s trouncing of the Broncos’ top-10 defense. The Chargers clinched their playoff spot already and tend to play down to opponents.
Pick: Rams +6.5