Trump’s standing faces test in vote
Haley primed to secure 2nd place as DeSantis focuses on S. Carolina
WASHINGTON — The race for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations will converge in New Hampshire on Tuesday in the first primary election of the season — though on the Democratic side, the contest may count only for bragging rights.
The Republican primary will test former President Donald Trump’s front-runner status in a state he carried by a comfortable margin in the 2016 primary but has a considerably more moderate electorate than the one that delivered him a big win in the Iowa caucuses.
It will also be a test for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who wants to establish herself as the main alternative to Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who edged Haley for second place in Iowa, is focusing his efforts on South Carolina after two scheduled New Hampshire debates were canceled.
Trump has had a consistent lead in the polls, with Haley, a former South Carolina governor, appearing to be in the strongest position among his rivals.
In the Democratic primary, President Joe Biden won’t appear on the ballot because the contest violates the national party rules he pushed for, but supporters have mounted a write-in campaign on his behalf. The Biden campaign has not endorsed the write-in effort. Among the Democratic candidates whose names will appear on the ballot are U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson.
The New Hampshire presidential primaries will be held Tuesday. The last polls in the state close at 8 p.m. — 6 p.m. Mountain time. In tiny Dixville Notch, which has only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight ET and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast a ballot.
The Republican primary ballot will list the names of 24 candidates, including DeSantis, Haley and Trump. The ballot includes the names of candidates who have dropped out, including Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy. The Democratic ballot will list the names of 21 candidates, including Phillips and Williamson.
Registered party members may vote only in their party’s primary. Independent or unaffiliated voters may vote in either primary. New voters may register on primary day at a polling site, but the deadline to change party affiliation for voters who are already registered was in October. Seventeen-year-olds who will turn 18 by the November general election may vote in the primary.
For Republicans, statewide primary results will be used to determine how many of New Hampshire’s 22 Republican National Convention delegates each candidate has won.
Delegates are allocated to candidates in proportion to their share of the statewide vote, though a candidate must receive at least 10% of the vote to qualify for delegates.
Any unallocated delegates are awarded to the statewide winner. Unlike some other states, New Hampshire Republican delegates are not allocated by congressional district. For Democrats, no delegates will be allocated based on the results of the primary, according to the Democratic National Committee, which governs the nomination process.
Trump won a competitive New Hampshire primary in 2016 with 35% of the vote, more than double the showing of his nearest competitor, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich. He did best in the state’s heavily Republican areas, outperforming Kasich by a nearly 4-1 ratio. Trump fared less well in the state’s heavily Democratic areas, though he still finished slightly ahead of Kasich in those parts of the state.
In Iowa, Haley performed best in the state’s more Democratic-friendly areas, but she finished with more votes than the former president in only one county.
To be competitive against Trump in New Hampshire, she’ll need to beat Trump outright in the state’s Democratic strongholds. If Trump posts big margins in these areas, including in Concord and Portsmouth, he’s likely on his way to a decisive win statewide.
There is no automatic recount in New Hampshire presidential primaries, but any candidate who receives at least 9% of votes cast may request a recount for a fee. The fee is refunded if the person who requested it is declared the winner.
As of Dec. 28, there were about 873,000 registered voters in New Hampshire. Registered Republicans make up 31% of voters, compared with 30% for Democrats. Independents or unaffiliated voters comprise 39%.