Is Netanyahu dragging out the war?
Critics note war’s end will bring louder calls for early elections
NAll I see is darkness. I see darkness in the short term. And I see even more darkness ahead.”
early six months since it began, Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip is dragging on. So, too, is the tenure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In Israel, some are now asking: Are the two linked?
To his allies, Netanyahu’s refusal to agree to a cease-fire in Gaza is a necessary one, made in the national interest and backed by many Israelis. The thinking goes that Israel must cripple Hamas to weaken its hand at cease-fire negotiations.
To his critics, the prime minister is dragging out the war to prevent the collapse of his fragile right-wing coalition and extend his time in office. By this analysis, he has made a domestic calculus that ignores both the growing global anger about the bloodshed — including from Israel’s most powerful ally, President Joe Biden, which erupted into full view Thursday — and the rising anger from the families of Israeli hostages who seek their relatives’ immediate release.
Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has long been portrayed as a vacillator who prefers to delay decisions for as long as possible so he can keep all options open.
His strategy is attracting renewed scrutiny because of the scale of what is at stake: Israel’s war in Gaza, which began in response to a Hamas-led raid on Israel on Oct. 7, has since killed more than 32,000 people, according to health authorities in Gaza. It has led experts to warn of a looming famine and has stigmatized Israel on the global stage, amid accusations, strongly denied by Israel, that it has pursued a genocide against people in Gaza.
The debate over Netanyahu’s intentions has been imbued with still more urgency by an Israeli strike this week that killed seven aid workers in Gaza, escalating international alarm over Israeli military tactics. The Israeli military took responsibility for the strike and said it was a case of misidentification.
The attack prompted Biden’s strongest response yet since the start of the six-month war. In a tense call with Netanyahu on Thursday, he threatened to condition future support for Israel on how it addresses U.S. concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
A summary of the phone call released by the White House said U.S. policy “will be determined” by Netanyahu’s response to Biden’s concerns, although it stopped short of directly saying the president would halt arms supplies or impose conditions for their use.
Within Israel, Netanyahu’s decision to keep on fighting is also contentious for the effect it may have on the Israelis captured by Hamas on Oct. 7, up to 100 of whom are still thought to be alive. A growing protest movement in Israel wants Netanyahu to swiftly agree to a hostage deal and cease-fire, even if it means accepting conditions that would give Hamas a greater chance of surviving the war.
Netanyahu’s allies say his approach is ultimately in the interests of those hostages: A stronger position on the battlefield gives Israel a stronger hand during hostage negotiations.
The captives are “in our hearts and constantly on our minds,” Ophir Falk, an adviser to Netanyahu, said in a written response to questions from The New York Times. “Destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages are not mutually exclusive goals. On the contrary, these missions complement one another.”
Netanyahu’s critics believe he is avoiding a hostage deal because some right-wing factions in his coalition have threatened to quit, thus forcing early elections, if the war ends without Hamas’ destruction. For months, polling has suggested Netanyahu’s bloc would lose power in an election, even as a large majority of Israelis support his policy of continuing the war, standing up to U.S. pressure and opposing the creation of a Palestinian state.
Shibley Telhami, University of Maryland
“He’s fallen back on his tried-and-true playbook, which is: Don’t make any decisions,” said Michael Koplow, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a research group based in New York. “He doesn’t want to spark elections, and making decisions in any direction is likelier to spark elections.”
The stasis is not all down to Netanyahu. It has been prolonged by Hamas’ determination to hold onto Rafah, the group’s last major stronghold in southern Gaza, and by Hamas’ reluctance to release hostages except after a permanent truce or at least a temporary one that allows people to return to northern Gaza, which could allow it to regroup.
Publicly, Netanyahu has said he is intent on invading Rafah. But some analysts say he is in no rush to capture the city, which would signal the end of the war, heightening calls for early elections as well as state inquiries into the Israeli government’s culpability for the Oct. 7 attack. They also say that Netanyahu’s political considerations have contributed to the chaos and lack of civil order in the parts of Gaza that Israel has wrested from Hamas control.
“All I see is darkness,” said Shibley Telhami, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the University of Maryland. “I see darkness in the short term. And I see even more darkness ahead.”