Predicting AL MVP, Cy Young, ROY
Sound the fanfare: The 2024 Major League Baseball regular season is officially here with all 30 teams in action on Opening Day tomorrow. With the season right around the corner, there’s no better time to take a look at the candidates for the major awards: Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. Here are the current top-10 oddson favorites and my predictions for the American League.
Most Valuable Player
Juan Soto:
$600)
Aaron Judge: +750
Julio Rodriguez, Yordan Alvarez and Corey Seager: +1200
Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Tucker: +1800
Mike Trout: +2200
Gunnar Henderson: +2300 Vladimir Guerrero: +2400
The Yankees have the top two favorites in Soto and Judge.
After being traded to New York in the offseason, Soto has been all the buzz in spring training. The Bronx Bombers’ newest addition got off to a red-hot start and is hitting .311 with four home runs, 10 RBIs and a 1.024 OPS in 16 games.
While Judge has struggled at the plate and dealt with core soreness that required an MRI this spring, the oddsmakers believe he will be in contention to win his second MVP in three seasons.
However, my pick will be a bit of a long shot here with Witt Jr., at 18/1 odds.
Entering his third season in the MLB, the former second overall pick improved in nearly all statistical categories across the board, including raising his batting average by 22 points (.254 to .276), leading the MLB in triples (11) and cutting down his strikeouts from 135 in 2022 to 121 last year despite having 62 more plate appearances in eight more games from his rookie season.
Witt Jr. is one of the rare five-tool players that can do it all, whether at the plate or in the field: He finished fourth in the majors with 49 stolen bases in 2023.
Arguably the biggest hurdle the 23year-old +600 (bet $100 to win shortstop faces is the team itself. Last year, only the Athletics (50112) had a worse record than the Royals (56-106). There’s no chance Witt Jr. can win the MVP with that record.
That said, Kansas City’s pitching rotation is much more solid than the year prior. Even though the Royals are currently 9/1 (+900) to win the AL Central and +415 to make the postseason, I believe Kansas City will be much improved from a season ago and will compete for the playoffs with the team’s best player leading the way.
Cy Young
Corbin Burnes: win $800)
Kevin Gausman: +850
Framber Valdez: +1100
Luis Castillo and Tarik Skubal: +1300
Cole Ragans: +1400
George Kirby and Pablo Lopez: +1500
Gerrit Cole and Grayson Rodriguez: +2500
The Cy Young market took a dramatic turn when it was announced earlier this month that Gerrit Cole, who was the odds-on favorite to win the award in back-to-back seasons, will be out until +800 (bet $100 to likely May or June with nerve inflammation and fluid buildup in his right elbow. With that, Cole now sits on the fringe of the top-10 odds.
With value all over the board and no clear favorite, my money is on Castillo, currently at 13/1.
When it comes to the Cy Young Award, the categories you need to be dominant in are wins and strikeouts – which the Mariners’ ace cleared with ease last season. In his first full season in the Pacific Northwest, the 31-year-old was a win away from tying a career-high of 15 victories as he recorded his most strikeouts (219) in four years in a personal best 197 innings pitched.
After a brutal month of June where he lost four of five starts, Castillo turned things around in a big way in the second half. The right-hander won eight of his final 15 starts in 2023, including earning the victory in seven straight appearances from Aug. 11 to Sept. 19.
Outside of having to at least repeat a season like he had last year, Castillo also has stiff competition in his own rotation as his teammates in Kirby and Gilbert are on this top-10 list.
Would I be shocked if one of his companions wins the Cy Young over him? Absolutely not considering they have one of the most talented 1-through-3 starters in all of baseball.
However, with the Mariners having a current win total line of 87.5 and on paper projected to be one of the best teams in baseball this upcoming season, I’m banking that Castillo wins the American League Cy Young, the first to do so for Seattle since Felix Hernandez in 2010.
Rookie of the Year
Wyatt Langford: win $275)
Evan Carter: +400
Jackson Holliday: +470
Colt Keith: +1200
Junior Caminero: +2000
Parker Meadows: +2000
Colton Cowser and Wilyer Abreu: +3000
Nolan Schanuel: +4500
Jasson Dominguez: +5000
This is a clear three-horse race heading into the regular season. However, you can make a case it should be down to a pair of Texas teammates with Holliday officially being optioned down to triple-A to start the year despite a strong showing in spring training for a second consecutive year.
My bet would be Langford. The No. 4 overall pick from the 2023 MLB draft is the odds-on favorite right now, and for good reason.
He’s been one of the best young prospects in spring training, slashing .375/.425/1.161 in 19 appearances and currently leading both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues with 20 RBIs. Eight of his 21 hits have been for extra bases (six home runs and two doubles) and he’s shown good plate discipline with five walks.
Furthermore, the No. 6 overall prospect in baseball has already officially made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster and could move up the lineup for the reigning World Series champions if he starts off his rookie campaign on a hot streak.
If that weren’t enough, Langford transitioned from rookie ball all the way to triple-A last season because of his sustained success across the minor leagues. In all, he finished with a .360 batting average and a 1.157 OPS, and he walked more times (36) than he struck out (34) in 44 games. +275 (bet $100 to