Reopening’s risks, rewards become state’s uncertain path

The guidelines for the four-phased reopening of the state’s withered economy have been laid out for public consumption. But what if the public isn’t ready to stick its toes into these uncharted waters?

While the general consensus seemed to suggest that most cloistered residents were champing at the bit for a return to some semblance of normalcy, even Gov. Charlie Baker’s gradual relaxing of business and social-gathering restraints no doubt have been received with some sense of trepidation.

Just how will employers and employees adjust to these new COVID-19 driven working conditions?

The manufacturing and construction industries will be the first to find out, since they received initial approval to resume operations in phase 1 of this reopening plan.

But are houses of worship, which inexplicably also received the go-ahead to open their doors, prepared to accept the responsibility of keeping their flock healthy, even with distancing restrictions in place?

This sense of uncertainty will multiply with the expansion of the phase 1 rollout on Monday, when reopening with conditions will begin for office spaces — except in Boston — labs, hair salons, barbershops, car washes, pet grooming and curbside pickup for retail stores, including recreational pot outlets.

Since many businesses have been operating remotely for the past two months, we don’t expect any immediate shift from that practice, especially under the current 25% capacity restrictions.

A few returning businesses — like hair salons and barbershops — likely would be inundated with customers, except for distancing and sanitizing protocols that will force operators to work much longer hours to accommodate the demand.

All phases of this resumption process — including the opening experiment — will unfold in three-week intervals, but could extend longer depending on public-health data trends, according to state officials.

That’s because no matter how well the economy responds to this experts-derived resuscitation plan overseen by Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito, it will all be for naught if the ongoing COVID-19 mitigation effort fails to achieve the desired results.

The state’s steps to a new normal will proceed on parallel economic and publichealth paths, with recovery from the coronavirus pandemic taking precedence over any economic rebound.

How the state responds to six COVID-19 metrics will guide the pace of the commonwealth’s business and social-interaction expansion:

: Positive coronavirus cases continue to decline, ideally reaching 5% or less;

: Number of COVID-19 deaths continue to decrease;

: Number of those hospitalized with COVID-19 maintains a downward trend;

: Health care system remains capable of meeting any demand

: Testing capacity continues to grow

: Contact tracing abilities continue to expand

These indicators will be continually updated, which means the timetable for phase 2 of the reopening — including restaurants, retail and lodging, nail salons and day spas — will depend on a cumulative positive feedback.

Our continued adherence to social distancing and proper hygiene will help determine whether these measurements of our COVID-19 response allow the governor to keep this reopening on track.

As he’s often said, it makes no sense to take one step forward and two steps back, which a COVID-19 spike in the post-reopening phase of the economy would signal.

While it’s true that for the 65-and-over population, not much has changed in this four-pronged undertaking, even the incremental alterations included in this opening phase bring opportunities and risks.

To what degree we maximize the former and minimize the latter will determine how quickly — and successfully — Massachusetts gets back on its feet.