Value going up
If there is a universal DH this year (and beyond?), the trade market for J.D. Martinez expands
The benefits to the long layoff and unusual circumstances in Major League Baseball continue to pile up for the Red Sox.
Not only are they currently sitting home during a season that projected to be a bridge year for them, but Chris Sale is recovering from Tommy John surgery without missing a single game, Alex Verdugo has nearly completely healed from back surgery, Jonathan Lucroy and Collin McHugh are healing up from their own respective surgeries and now it looks like there will be a universal designated hitter.
If baseball returns with a 30-man roster, which is sure to include a lot of rotating pitchers, the Sox had the perfect offseason, one in which Chaim Bloom spent hoarding spare relievers and depth starters like he knew this was coming.
If the players and owners ever agree on a salary structure and we get an 81-game season, the Sox have a chance in this weird format. All 30 teams do, especially with expanded playoffs that’ll include 14 teams.
But no matter how well or poorly they perform in whatever baseball 2020 provides us with, they should enter the season with one of the most valuable assets in baseball: J.D. Martinez.
How did the 32-year-old designated hitter, one who wouldn’t even opt out of his contract this past winter because of what was expected to be a narrow market for his services, suddenly become so important?
The universal DH, long desired by a large continent of baseball folks — including the players’ union, which would love to add 15 juicy job opportunities into the fray — is primed to take over in 2020, and perhaps beyond. Multiple outlets reported late last week that the universal DH is expected to be approved this year.
If there are still concerns about pitchers’ health in 2021, perhaps the universal DH will continue right on into next year.
Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement ends after the 2021 season, and you can bet that’ll be a topic of discussion. It always is.
That sound you hear is the Red Sox’ valuation of Martinez skyrocketing.
It’s not that Martinez is a disaster in the outfield. He’s just not the most reliable player. His arm is fine, but his range is limited, and, likely due to the nature of being a part-time DH, he isn’t the most polished defender.
The Aug. 31 game in Anaheim last year was a solid example of Martinez’s value. He had another monster game at the plate while going deep once and driving in three runs. But in the ninth inning, with one out and runners on the corners, Albert Pujols singled to right field on a routine line drive that Martinez fumbled. It allowed both runners to score, tying the game and sending it into extras (the Sox eventually won in 15 innings).
There’s a reason why the Red Sox, and not a National League team, signed him after his monster 2017 season for just $110 million over five years.
Martinez was the 13th-most productive offensive player in baseball last year, according to OPS. His .939 mark was tied with Xander Bogaerts. There were only six National League players with a higher OPS than Martinez.
The last time he was in the N.L. in 2017, he hit .302 with a 1.107 OPS and 29 homers in 62 games with the Diamondbacks leading into his free agency.
This isn’t new. His .961 OPS since the start of the 2015 season ranks second only to Mike Trout’s ridiculous 1.041 mark.
And the Sox got him for about $22 million a year. He can opt out again after 2020 and 2021. He’ll make just $19 million in 2021 and 2022 before he can hit free agency again at 35 years old.
If there are 15 additional teams looking for a DH, Martinez would make a lot more than $22 million a year, all other things equal.
Of course, we don’t know how the baseball economy will change in a post-coronavirus world. Will all original contracts be honored while new contracts are significantly less equitable as teams are more wary of spending money? Or will all contracts be affected equally?
Either way, Martinez will become a more valuable player in a world with 30 DH jobs.
And if the Red Sox are out of contention midway through this abbreviated season, they’ll have to explore the trade possibilities. Because right now, it seems quite possible that Martinez would net more value in return than Mookie Betts.
Universal DH would bring NL clubs into the fold