SIZING UP PATS’ QB PROSPECTS
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The 2021 NFL Draft should provide an answer to the central question of the Patriots’ offseason:
Who is going to play quarterback for Bill Belichick next season?
Maybe the passer the Patriots pick -- and there should be one chosen unless Belichick completely goes off the rails -- won’t be a plug-and-play starter next season. But there’s a good chance he’ll hold the key to the future of the franchise. Picking at 15th overall, the Pats could wait their turn or trade up for a prospect they like.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, expected to go first overall to the Jaguars, is off the table. No way the Jags don’t take him.
Ohio State’s Justin Fields and BYU’s Zach Wilson are projected
top-5 picks. In fact, Lawrence, Fields and Wilson might be the first three picks in order, if some mock drafts are to be believed. With the Jets and Dolphins (via Houston) holding the No. 2 and No. 3 picks, respectively, it’s possible they’ll trade out.
North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, meanwhile, could go in the top 10. So there’s at least four top quarterback prospects who might be gone before the Patriots even step up to the plate.
How aggressive will the Patriots be to land their guy?
That’s anyone’s guess. It would likely take at least the 15th pick and a future first-round pick to move up. It’s also important to note there could be as many as eight teams in the quarterback market above them. So it’s possible other quarterbacks might be over-drafted or taken ahead of schedule.
Keeping that in mind, here’s a look
at the quarterback possibilities in the draft, and who might land with the Patriots.
The Pipe Dreams
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Height: 6-foot- 6
Weight: 220 pounds
2020 stats: 24 TD passes, 5 INTs, 3,153 yards
Lowdown: Even after losing to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney called Lawrence “the greatest winner I’ve ever been around.”
Lawrence, bothered by the fierce Buckeyes pass rush all game, still managed to throw for 400 yards and two touchdowns. He’d already led the Tigers to the national championship game the past two seasons, winning the title as a freshman. He’s been called a generational talent by
experts, who call him the best college passer since Andrew Luck in 2012.
But there’s no way he lands in New England. Not even bad teams pass on generational talents.
Justin Fields, Ohio State Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 228 pounds 2020 stats: 21 TD passes, 6 INTs, 1,906 yards
Lowdown: Fields improved his stock in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Clemson, throwing six touchdown passes. It was a gutsy, gritty performance, as Fields took a thunderous hit to his right side late in the first half, but stayed in the game.
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day said of Fields: “Justin is such a competitive guy, he wasn’t going to come off the field. That’s just the way he’s wired. It was a pretty amazing performance.”
Fields, who began his career with Georgia in 2018 before transferring to Ohio State in 2019, will get even more exposure in the national championship game on Monday.
He’s a dynamic player, and, as the Sugar Bowl showed, is accurate throwing the deep ball. He’s the type of mobile quarterback that’s become fashionable in the NFL. He will go soon after Lawrence. Whether it’s to the Jets or another team via trade, he’ll likely go No. 2, barring a disaster in the title game.
Zach Wilson, BYU Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 210 pounds 2020 stats: 33 TDs, 3 INTs, 3,692 yards
Lowdown: No one has made a bigger rise up the draft board than Wilson. At the start of the season, Pro Football Focus did not mention him in their top 100 prospects. Now, he sits right below Lawrence and Fields.
Wilson moves well and has exceptional arm talent, completing 73.5% of his passes this season. He throws equally well in the pocket, or on the move. He’s one of the highest-rated passers in the country. Add 10 rushing scores, and he’s the complete package.
Wilson wasn’t a firstround prospect for quite a while, but his recent rise has prognosticators believing he’ll go in the top five, which is probably too rich for the Patriots unless they’re hugely aggressive and think he’s the best fit for them.
The Dark Horse
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 224 pounds 2020 stats: 2 TDs, 1 INT, 149 yards
Lowdown: Lance did not play this year after an exhibition against Central Arkansas, choosing to opt out of North Dakota State’s postponed spring season so he could focus on the draft.
But there’s still considerable draft buzz around
Lance because of his 2019 campaign, when he led the Bison to the FCS national title, throwing 28 touchdown passes with no picks. He also rushed for 1,150 yards on 177 carries and broke 40 tackles.
He’s not quite Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson, but he can still gain the tough yards at the goal line or in short-yardage situations.
As a passer, Lance is a bit inconsistent with the shorter, touch passes. But he still has considerable arm talent and a quick release. He can make all the throws, and do so at an NFL level.
His physical skill set is a huge draw in the dualthreat category. While Lance might need a year to develop, his projected ceiling as a franchise quarterback will have plenty of teams intrigued.
He reminds some people of a young Cam Newton. Maybe he’s still around at No. 15, or even later, but with all the quarterbackneedy teams, some projections have him going in the top 10. That would require a move up the board if the Patriots deem him the man. Still seems like a long shot.
The Contenders
Mac Jones, Alabama Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 214 pounds 2020 stats: 36 TD passes, 4 INTs, 4,036 yards
Lowdown: Jones also shot up draft boards, thanks to his nation-leading 76.5% completion percentage. His career 11.2 yards per attempt average ranks first all-time. So his numbers jump off the page.
But being with the Crimson Tide, there will be some question as to how much of Jones’ success is owed to his surrounding cast.
He’s played behind one of the best offensive lines in college football, and a group of receivers that would rival some units on NFL teams. No doubt, that will be factored in.
With or without a superior cast, Jones shows poise and patience in the pocket, and a good feel for the game. He has demonstrated good touch and makes his reads pretty quickly.
There will be plenty of eyes on him in the title
game Monday against Ohio State.
Right now, the Heisman Trophy finalist projects in the middle of the first round, or beyond, so that’s right in the Patriots’ wheelhouse. And, of course, it would be remiss not to mention Belichick’s connection to Alabama coach Nick Saban.
Kyle Trask, Florida Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 240 pounds 2200 stats: 43 TDs, 8 INTs, 4,283 yards
Lowdown: Trask’s passing efficiency improved significantly from 2019 to 2020. While he lost all of his starting receivers to the NFL last year, he still had plenty of talent left over in projected first-round tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Kadarius Toney, and utilized everyone on the field.
As a redshirt senior, Trask led the nation in touchdown passes, and passing yards. He also thrived in the same offensive system that produced Dak Prescott and Alex Smith. He’s a natural thrower with a great arm, who’s shown to be very accurate.
Trask almost singlehandedly carried Florida to a win over Georgia, throwing for almost 500 yards. He also was very good against Alabama in the SEC Championship, with over 400 passing yards and three touchdowns -- plus rushing for another two.
He’s not the fleetest of foot, and while he occasionally runs, that’s not his forte. He’s a classic pocket passer, and one of the best in the draft in that category.
He’s been listed as a second-round talent on some boards, but it wouldn’t surprise if the Heisman Trophy finalist went in the first round.
The Projects
Jamie Newman, Georgia Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 229 pounds 2020 stats: None Lowdown: He started last year for Wake Forest before transferred to Georgia. But then he opted out, citing the pandemic, which complicates his evaluation. He could land anywhere.
Newman accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, and will have a lot riding on his week in Mobile. He is said to have “plus” tools when it comes to arm strength, accuracy and mobility, and is another who fits in the dual-threat category.
In 2019 at Wake Forest, he had 2,868 yards passing, 574 yards rushing, plus 32 total touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
He’s not the most accurate passer in the field, as shown by his 60.9 completion percentage, but he’s still an intriguing prospect given his overall skill set.
With those tools, he could be developed into a starter, and would fall in line as a possibility for the Patriots, especially if they sign a veteran free agent who would hold down the fort for a few years.
Kellen Mond,
A&M
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 225 pounds 2020 stats: 16 TDs, 2 INTs, 1,468 yards
Lowdown: Mond is the most experienced starter of this group, having played 43 games in college.
He’s another in the pocket-passer realm, although he can scramble when needed (500 rushing yards in 2019). He’s viewed as having all the physical tools required to advance as an NFL passer. His arm strength is good, he has a quick release and has shown to be accurate for the most part.
The latter quality would have to improve at the next level. This season, he completed 64.3 percent of his passes.
Mond’s been somewhat inconsistent, but did have a big game against Florida, leading Texas A&M to a fourth-quarter comeback win.
He’s considered a thirdround prospect, or beyond. Right now, he projects as a backup, so unless the Patriots view him differently, he’s probably not the best fit given their current situation.
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 216 pounds 2020 stats: 19 TDS, 6 INTs, 2,296 yards
Lowdown: An overlooked prospect in a big class, Ridder is definitely a name to watch, especially if the Patriots sign a veteran in free agency.
Ridder’s physical skill set and upside make him attractive as a possible franchise quarterback at the next level. He has a big arm, and can hit any throw on the field. He can also escape the pocket and make plays.
He’s another in the dualthreat mode. He’s shown well both as a runner and passer in Cincinnati’s offense. This season, he averaged an eye-popping 10.1 yards per carry with 505 yards on 50 attempts.
He’s been Cincy’s starter since 2018 as a redshirt freshman, but he’s still considered a raw talent and project quarterback, one that might fit the bill for the Patriots.
Texas