BELICHICK, PATS PREP FOR TRADE POSSIBILITIES
Team could move up from 15th pick
To use Bill Belichick’s words, the upcoming NFL Draft is like a final exam for the Patriots’ year-long study of the 2021 draft class.
These days, they’re cramming.
Over the next two weeks, the Pats will take practice tests by running simulations of what could happen ahead of the 15th overall pick, their highest selection in more than a decade. The big question isn’t whom they’ll draft at No. 15. It’s whether they’ll trade up. Specifically, for a quarterback.
Following Belichick’s answer about trade scenarios during his press conference Thursday, it seems if the Patriots do take a leap, it’ll be a small one.
“I would say normally something will happen, and there could very well be a player there that either you don’t expect to be there or maybe he is a couple spots. Maybe at 12, 13 he’s still on the board, and you really thought he’d be gone in the first six, seven picks,” Belichick said. “And then the question comes, do you try to move up and get that player that’s fallen a little bit?”
The Patriots answered that question last year with a resounding yes, moving up four times to draft players on their board. Of course, the calculation is different this year because of their unusually high draft slot and how a quarterback’s value changes the math on NFL trades. The 49ers surrendered three first-round
picks and a third-rounder to move from the 12th pick to No. 3 overall, where they won’t even have their pick of passers, but should be able to draft one of two targets.
If the Pats move from No. 15 to fourth overall, San Francisco’s haul could be the starting point for negotiations with Atlanta.
They could also gamble, hoping a top quarterback falls in the draft, perhaps to pick No. 7 or 8, and then move to acquire him. Or wait longer, as Belichick mentioned, until the 12th pick, which would mitigate the cost of trading up.
However the board falls, the Patriots intend to be as prepared as possible, while acknowledging their practice tests usually don’t resemble the real thing.
“Sometimes people will come to you with opportunities that you may not have anticipated, and you have to make those decisions then, as to whether or not you would want to move your selection pick up
or down, depending on what the offer is and so forth,” Belichick said. “So, a lot of it’s fluid, but there are certainly those scenarios that are worth going through as exercises to think about and to kind of prepare.
“I’d say, more often than not, the ones that you go through don’t happen. It’s usually something a little bit different. But, you never know.”
To date, most of the Patriots’ draft preparation has been handled by lead executive Dave Ziegler, consultant Eliot Wolf and national scout Matt Groh. Former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has also been “heavily involved,” per Belichick, in the team’s offseason, even finalizing free-agent contracts on the team’s behalf. This marks a major change for the front office, which had long leaned on Nick Caserio, now the Texans GM, to organize and lead the draft with Belichick.
Pats owner Robert Kraft recently alluded to changes in the team’s evaluation process, which Belichick generalized Thursday.
“We’re always looking to get better, always try to evaluate everything we do and find a
better way to do it. That’s not necessarily an annual process with the draft, but something we do on a regular basis throughout the course of the season, whether it’s whatever period of time it is,” he said. “Always looking to do a better job.”
Belichick does believe the team has improved its draft preparation from a year ago, having applied lessons learned from the first time drafting in a COVID-19 environment. The Patriots had several needs in 2020 and traded up to address them, whereas their roster is better stocked this time around. Might that lead them to trade away picks and move up for a quarterback, defensive back or wide receiver?
“There are always players at every spot who fall into that category that you feel like you’re going to have to draft higher than what they’ve done,” Belichick said. “But if you’re willing to do that and get the player, then you draft him at a higher spot, and hope his production eventually reflects the potential that you saw.”
Translation: to be determined.
See you in two weeks, with pencils at the ready.