Can any film beat ‘Nomadland’?
12A
Ahead of Sunday’s 93rd Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writers Jake Coyle and Lindsey Bahr share their predictions for a ceremony that is forging on in the midst of the pandemic.
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Nominees: “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank,”“Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
COYLE: As much as I’d like to see “Sound of Metal,” “Promising Young Woman” or “Minari” sneak in for an upset, “Nomadland” is a near-lock, and an eminently worthy winner. But it’s udder madness that Kelly Reichardt’s lyrical “First Cow” never contended here.
BAHR: It is the year of “Nomadland,” and that’s only cause for celebration.
Actress
Nominees: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”; Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”; Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”; Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”; Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.”
BAHR: This race is perhaps the biggest wild card of the night. Viola Davis won the Screen Actors Guild Award, Andra Day won the Golden Globe, and Frances McDormand won the BAFTA. It’s chaos! Day still seems like a long shot, and McDormand’s last win still seems fresh enough that it might push voters who would’ve otherwise went for her. This year I’m inclined to believe Davis will walk away with the trophy for her raw portrayal of blues singer Ma Rainey, but I can’t help but think that perhaps Mulligan should win for “Promising Young Woman.”
COYLE: Chaos indeed! I think this is a toss-up between Davis and Mulligan, with the edge going to Davis after her SAG win. And there is justice in Davis — very possibly the greatest actor alive — taking the top award, especially when you factor in the category’s history. Just once before has a Black woman (Halle Berry in 2002 for “Monster’s Ball”) won best actress.
Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”; Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”; Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”; Gary Oldman, “Mank”; Steven Yeun, “Minari.”
COYLE: After some ho-hum years, this category is really strong this time around. I loved all of these performances. Still, this award has — rightly — belonged to Boseman throughout an award season that has doubled as tribute and wake for the late “Ma Rainey” actor. His greatest performance was his last. Some see a chance of Hopkins (who won at the BAFTAs) pulling off an upset for his devastating portrait of a man stricken with dementia. But I don’t.
BAHR: Could you imagine if Boseman didn’t win? The grit and commitment in all these performances are worth singing about, though.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”; Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”; Olivia Colman, “The Father”; Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”; YuhJung Youn, “Minari.”
BAHR: In a category where Amanda Seyfried started out seeming like a lock, it certainly seems like the tide has shifted toward Yuh-Jung Youn for her performance as the unconventional grandmother Soonja in “Minari.” It’s a difficult task to be both the comic relief and the heart of a film, but she pulls it off effortlessly which is why she probably will and should win.
COYLE: This has been a shape-shifting race, but Youn is definitely in the lead. I’d like to see more love all around for “Minari,” but it’s kind of fitting that Lee Isaac Chung’s film be celebrated through the minari-growing matriarch of the movie.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”; Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”; Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”; LaKeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
COYLE: This seems certain to go to Daniel Kaluuya. For his mighty performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton, Kaluuya (a nominee for “Get Out”) has racked up wins at the SAGs, Globes and BAFTAs. A little wrinkle came when Stanfield was unexpectedly nominated here despite being campaigned for as a leading actor — and that could split some of the vote between the two “Judas and the Black Messiah” stars.
BAHR: If I’m being perfectly honest, I would have been happy if the supporting slate was simply the cast of “One Night in Miami,” plus Kaluuya. I do think Paul Raci has a shot as the Cinderella story of awards season, but it also feels like it’s time to get Kaluuya up on that stage.
Director
Nominees: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”; Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”; David Fincher, “Mank”;
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”; Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round.”
BAHR: The directing category is Chloé Zhao’s to lose, and I think she both will win and should win for the transcendent “Nomadland,” even if it has become a forgone conclusion at this point.
COYLE: Zhao will win, and it should be a great moment. Not just because she’ll be only the second woman to ever win the award but because she’s an exceptional — and exceptionally humble — filmmaker with a lot of movies ahead of her.
More often this award goes to someone who has been around a while. Pretty soon, we’ll be wondering how it’s possible that David Fincher — maybe the very best Hollywood director of his era — has never won.
Animated Feature
The Nominees:
“Onward,”
“Over the Moon,” “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon,” “Soul,” “Wolfwalkers.”
COYLE: Pixar, like always, seems to have this in the bag. The studio’s “Soul” is the clear favorite. There’s so much that’s wondrous in Pete Docter’s film that its Oscar victory is hardly something to lament.
But you couldn’t find a better underdog than the plucky Irish animation studio Cartoon Saloon, which last year released their most enchanting and ambitious film yet. Tomm Moore and Ross Stewart’s “Wolfwalkers,” the culmination of a triptych of Irish folklore, is impossibly stunning.
BAHR: Disney and Pixar are so hard to beat. Since 2010, they’ve won eight times and the other two were not exactly indie underdogs (“Rango” and “Spider-Verse”). I’m rooting for “Wolfwalkers” but I’m betting on “Soul.”