Census sustains state’s 9 Dems rep stranglehold

The all-Democratic Massachusetts congressional delegation can breathe a sigh of relief: the state’s 2020 Census Bureau figures preserved all nine U. S. representative seats.

That’s because the Census Bureau data released Monday showed the state’s total population topping 7 million for the first time — up from 6.5 million in the 2010 census.

The 7,029,917 counted as Massachusetts residents exceeded estimates for the state by more than 100,000 people, and the rate of growth — estimated at 7.4% — far exceeded the 3.1 % it grew in the decade before 2010, when the state lost one Democratic in Congress.

We use Democrat interchangeably with congressional delegation in acknowledgement of the fact that a Republican hasn’t represented Massachusetts in Washington since 1996.

Since the number of U.S. rep seats is based on a state’s population, that previous 3.1% increase wasn’t enough to retain that 10th seat, because Massachusetts failed to keep pace with growth in other parts of the country.

It did a better job of doing that in the subsequent 10 years, as did the other five New England states, which all maintained their current congressional numbers.

But this doesn’t mean that an office holder’s worries are over. With every decade-demanded Census comes the redrawing of congressional district lines to reflect those new numbers.

Given the updated totals, the goal of having Massachusetts districts of equal population comes out to about 781,000 residents.

Districts at the extremes of that number likely will feel the greatest impact.

The 8th District, currently represented by Rep. Stephen Lynch, which includes portions of Boston, Brockton, Quincy and 21 towns in southeastern Massachusetts, has an estimated population of 822,800.

At the other end lies the 1st District, represented by Rep. Richard Neal, which covers about a third of the state and includes Springfield, West Springfield, Pittsfield and Holyoke, with an estimated population of about 736,500.

The impact on our primary two local congressional districts, the 3rd and 6th, while certainly less, can’t be called insignificant, as U.S. Rep. Lori Trahan can attest.

The Westford Democrat won the 3rd District Democratic primary in 2018 to succeed longtime Lowell Democrat Niki Tsongas by less than 150 votes over Andover’s Dan Koh; she then easily won the general election in November.

Even a minor difference in that district — a section of one more Essex County community perhaps — likely would have swung the primary vote in Koh’s favor.

So, even a minor district shift could have significant consequences.

As an established incumbent, Seth Moulton, the Salem Democrat and one-time aspiring presidential candidate who represents the

6th Congressional District, which encompasses mainly Essex County and other North Shore communities but also the area towns of Bedford, Billerica, Burlington, Tewksbury, and Wilmington, has had a far easier time retaining his seat.

The official population data required to redraw districts should be released by Sept. 30. Monday’s release was only the initial batch of data.

It didn’t include more detailed information, such as population counts for specific cities that will help state lawmakers redraw state legislative districts. It also didn’t include a breakdown of populations by race, age, or other demographics.

Due to the delayed Census information, the initial redrawn district lines prompted by a federal consent decree change to Lowell’s election system remain intact.

While the nation’s population continues to expand, the number of seats in the House of Representatives doesn’t.

But if you take those 435 seats and divide them by the 50 states, you arrive at 8.7 representatives per state, which puts Massachusetts at the national average.