Pats’ upcoming draft class is a litmus test
Will be barometer of how they view roster
The NFL draft is both what you make it, and how you allow it to happen. Parts unknowable and comfortingly predictable.
Every year, the quarterbacks go highest, Jacksonville picks somewhere in the top 10 and then Mel Kiper Jr. takes a long vacation. But between all that, anything goes.
The same largely holds true for free agency, where the highest-paid players go off the board early, and front offices unearth the real gems in the days that follow. For years, the Pats mined value during that time.
But as you’ll remember, the Patriots instead rode the first wave of free agency this offseason into uncharted waters. Robert Kraft explained the recordsetting splurge as seizing an unprecedented market opportunity created by the pandemic. While the merits of the Pats’ plan and its execution can be debated, similar reasoning might motivate the front office to also seize the draft instead of sitting back.
Between their leaguehigh eight opt-outs, Cam Newton’s struggles, starters missing time and the loss of a traditional bye week, no team suffered more from COVID-19 last season than the Patriots. They were lucky to finish 7-9, as the league’s 11thworst team by DVOA propped up game-winning kicks against the Jets and Cardinals. Read that sentence again.
From that pain has sprung the team’s highest pick in more than a decade, and the front office’s
best trade chip. The Pats have never been closer to acquiring a top-10 quarterback than they are today.
Furthermore, the 2021 quarterback class is outstanding. Two legitimate first-round prospects should still be available after Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and a third passer are expected to go in the top three picks. Bill Belichick also refuses to pay top dollar at the position. Drafting a fresh face of the franchise would be cost-controlled for four or five years. The Pats’ roster and cap sheet are built to house a rookie quarterback for the next few years, after which he would become extension eligible when the cap will have skyrocketed with the infusion of the NFL’s new TV money.
Basically, if there was ever a time for the Patriots to trade up for a quarterback — having already reloaded via free agency, with a veteran placeholder in Newton, no face of the franchise in-house and potentially two available — this would be it.
Of course, history says otherwise.
The world knows Belichick prefers trading down and stockpiling picks. That strategy is validated by
several long-term studies and statistics, none better than this: only 40% of first-round quarterbacks, the most prized and scrutinized prospects in any class, pan out. The draft is the NFL’s casino night, and Belichick wants as many pulls on the slot machine as he can.
These are all the comfortingly predictable parts. Here’s what’s unknowable about the 2021 draft: the Pats’ evaluations of these quarterbacks and the competition for their services after pick No. 3.
Either factor could take the Patriots out of the running for Mac Jones, Trey Lance and/or Justin Fields. If Belichick doesn’t believe in their potential as franchise passers, he’s on to the 2022 class or other veteran options. That’s it.
And if competing front offices are willing to write blank trade checks to deal with Detroit at No. 7 overall, Carolina at No. 8 or Dallas at 10th, Belichick likely folds in the name of value. However, in this scenario, there’s still a chance he ponies up.
Because for the Patriots, any trade up is a three-part consideration: the value a prospect can deliver, the odds he will deliver that value, and whether that odds-adjusted value outweighs the cost of trading up to acquire him. If the Patriots believe Fields, Jones or Lance is a franchise quarterback, that belief will stem from his ability and their ability to develop him
into that player. Therefore, in their minds, that quarterback’s odds of delivering proper value will be greater than the baseline 40% because of how favorably the Pats’ infrastructure and track record compares to organizations who typically draft that high.
In this light, the cost of moving up (likely a 2022 first-round pick) is minimized because first-round prospects are generally 50/50 propositions, and those at other positions are always far less valuable than quarterbacks who hit. Plus, imagine passing on a potential Pro Bowl passer so you can draft a cornerback this year and a defensive lineman the next, when odds are only one will succeed?
If the Patriots draft a quarterback, that selection will be a clear and obvious affirmation of the player. If it’s Jones, his selection will speak even louder as an affirmation of their system. Jones is a prototype of the past, a statuesque passer with excellent touch and middling arm strength who struggles outside of structure. He is the most pro-ready of the quarterbacks who might be available, whose lack of mobility also limits his ceiling.
Mobility is more than a luxury for quarterbacks in the modern NFL. It’s margin of error. The ability to thrive in chaos, by consistently scrambling for positive gain or buying extra time for your re
ceivers to separate, is vital in an era where offenses are practicing and meeting less than ever before. As noted by USA Today, Jared Goff is the only immobile, first-round quarterback since 2011 to sign a second contract with the team that drafted him. Eighteen months later, the Rams shipped him to Detroit.
There’s evidence the Patriots are not married to the pocketbound prototype. Newton is the clear and obvious example, followed by every quarterback they’ve drafted the past 10 years, all of whom boasted some level of mobility. If the Pats trade up for Fields or Lance, it will mark a major commitment to evolving with the game instead of their system and patience with their rebuild. (Both quarterback already check all the traditional boxes: accuracy, intelligence, leadership and ability to protect the football.)
Free agency showed the Pats saw themselves the way the league did: far from contention. They attacked every roster need with an urgency bordering on desperation. Only one need remains.
Without a franchise quarterback, the Patriots have wandered the NFL wilderness for 14 months now.
Thursday night should offer a way out — provided they choose the right path at this fork in the road.