Story’s season shows Bogey’s value
Consistency matters when comparing Sox infielders
If ever there was a reason to remember that WAR is a useful stat, but far from the be-all, end-all in baseball evaluation tools, Trevor Story has been a perfect example.
Story’s season may have come to an end on Thursday, when the Red Sox placed him on the injured list with a bruised heel. He’ll be eligible to return with a week left in the season, but don’t hold your breath.
Last time the Sox said he’d be back shortly, he missed six weeks with a hand/wrist injury.
Not to say that Story should’ve played through it — that’s one of the dumbest takes in sports media, since only the player and the team know the extent of injuries — but rather a commentary on his season, and that of the Red Sox.
They aren’t making the playoffs anyways, so why should Story rush himself back now?
The reality is that the $140-million signing, the biggest of Chaim Bloom’s tenure, hasn’t looked good so far.
It’s hard to write that, to say that, to even think that, without acknowledging that Story had two really good weeks and will finish the year as one of the Red Sox’ most valuable players, according to WAR (wins above replacement).
Fangraphs has Story being worth 2.4 WAR this year, making him the third-most valuable player or pitcher on the Red Sox behind only Xander Bogaerts (6.0) and Rafael Devers (4.8).
Michael Wacha, the Sox’ ace who is 11-1 with a 2.70 ERA, is worth only 2.1 WAR.
How on earth?
Story played in just 94 games. He was terrible in at least half of those games, decent in about a quarter of them, and otherworldly in 15 of them.
How a guy who has three good weeks and spent half the year on the injured list can be the thirdmost valuable player on the team is either a result of a flawed statistic or a terrible team.
Or both.
That’s not to say that Story won’t eventually be worth the $140 million he’ll make over the
six-year contract. Maybe he will be. But he turns 30 in November, a month before Bogaerts, who turns 30 in October, and we know how these things often go.
Pitchers excel in their early 30s. Some are even better in their midto-late 30s. Hitters usually trend in the other direction.
It’s what the Red Sox will say when they inevitably let Bogaerts walk in free agency.
Players who rely on power and speed have a hard time maintaining those abilities later in their careers.
Story talked about his speed in an interview with the Globe on Thursday, saying that his speed is “a big part of my game” and explaining why he decided to rest his bruised heel rather than play through it.
“I want to be able to get out there and play the way that I know I can play, and given right now and how it’s progressed, that’s not the case,” he said.
It doesn’t bode well for the future if a bruised heel is enough to make a $140-million player feel like he wouldn’t be valuable on the field.
As it is, Story is a difficult
player to evaluate. He was terrible in the first month of the season, when he looked completely lost at the plate, ranked near the bottom of the league in contact percentage and was making game-losing mistakes at second base, albeit a new position for the longtime shortstop.
He suddenly caught fire in May, doing all his damage in a 15-game span in which he hit .293 with nine homers and 27 RBIS.
From May 27 to date, he’s hit .243 with seven homers and 29 RBIS in 55 games.
He has certainly gotten good at second base, and unquestionably has good baseball instincts that capitalize on his speed and athleticism. But he hasn’t been on the field and has been far too inconsistent to believe that he’s been the third-most valuable player on the Red Sox this year.
The WAR stat will tell you he ranks No. 81 out of 1,475 players who have appearances in a big league game this year. That feels generous. The Red Sox record shows that. Their struggles on offense, too.
For a guy who will be paid between $20-25 million per season
over the next five years, he simply disappointed in 2022.
There’s nothing wrong with saying that, admitting he had brief moments of brilliance, acknowledging that he looks like a tremendous athlete with elite skills that show up once in a while but without the consistency to make him a truly great player.
At his best, Story is probably a better player than Bogaerts.
But Bogaerts stays on the field. He’s consistent. He contributes through injuries. He makes himself useful, even if one of his skills is temporarily lacking.
Look at his power. Bogaerts lost it this year. He has just 14 homers. But he’s hitting .314 and playing the best defense of his career, making him the fourth-most valuable player in the American League, according to WAR (only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Yordan Alvarez have been better).
Take it with a grain of salt. Use your eyes.
Story has looked like a great player, but if the Red Sox are willing to pay him $23.3 million a year and won’t do the same for Bogaerts, it’ll be hard to understand that logic.