When will Red Sox start spending?
We’ve hit roughly the halfway point of the offseason, and with Winter Weekend and likely a few more moves still to come before spring training, now is as good a time as any to empty out the mailbag and answer your questions.
Today we’ll cover the Red Sox payroll, potential trade scenarios and how a couple of newcomers could factor into the big league equation.
When will the Red Sox start spending again like they used to? Or are those days over? — Ben I.
This is a question I hear from Red Sox fans a lot, and it’s especially worth addressing given the recent reports that ownership set a budget of $225 million last year and has been squirrelly about payroll this winter. Basically, what exactly would “spending again like they used to” actually look like, and what would constitute an acceptable payroll for this club?
Traditionally, the Red Sox have ranked in the top five for payroll throughout John Henry’s ownership, and according to year-by-year Associated Press data, the Red Sox ranked top five in 19 of the past 22 seasons. They ranked second to the Yankees in five out of six seasons between 2002- 08, one of the most successful runs in team history, and boasted the No. 1 payroll in 2018-19.
But lately that’s begun to change. Since 2019, the Red Sox have been surpassed by numerous other teams, with the club dropping to sixth in 2022 and to 13th in 2023, by far the worst mark relative to the league in recent franchise history. According to Red Sox Payroll on Twitter, the club finished with a payroll of approximately $225 million this past year — meeting ownership’s reported mandate — and while that isn’t far off from the club’s biggest spending seasons, it still falls far short of the investments made by other organizations in recent years, notably the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers.
So if the Red Sox are going to spend like they used to, they need to pick up the pace.
In order to get back into the top
five, the Red Sox will probably have to carry a payroll of at least $250 million. Even if that doesn’t approach the ludicrous spending we’ve seen from Steve Cohen and the Mets, it would at least put the club back on par with the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies.
So, that’s it, right? Well, not quite. The other factor to consider is timing, and while going over the luxury tax threshold hasn’t deterred the other big clubs, there are valid baseball reasons why the Red Sox might want to stay below for one more year before pushing their chips to the center of the table.
Besides the luxury tax payments themselves, clubs that go over the luxury tax suffer draft pick penalties, most notably in terms of the compensatory picks they get when a high-profile free agent leaves. If a club is below the tax threshold, they’ll get a pick between the second and third rounds, while if they’re over it’ll drop to between the fourth and fifth.
The penalties get stiffer for each year a club is over the threshold, and if the difference of a few rounds doesn’t seem significant, remember that the Red Sox acquired top outfield prospect Roman Anthony with an early compensatory pick in 2022. Had they been over the tax he’d likely be playing for a different organization.
Given that this team is coming off two straight last place finishes and is probably still more than a year away from championship contention, it wouldn’t be outrageous for Red Sox ownership to want to hang below the tax threshold at least one more season. If that’s their goal, then they should approach the $237 million tax threshold — maybe leave a small buffer for midseason acquisitions — and ready themselves for a big push starting in 2025.
But if this season’s payroll comes out to $225 million again — or worse, even lower — then red flags should go up all across New England and the team will have some explaining to do.
What implications does potentially moving on from Kenley Jansen have on the bullpen? Who would replace him? — Justin Z.
So this question comes amid reports that the Red Sox might be looking to slash payroll before targeting some of the remaining free agents more aggressively, and Kenley Jansen is someone who has been floated as a possible trade chip to help accomplish that.
Personally, I think that’d be a bad idea and would be completely selfdefeating, but let’s say they do deal Jansen and unload his $16 million remaining salary. What then?
The Red Sox have a couple of internal options who could slot into the closer role. The top candidate would seemingly be Chris Martin, who just put together one of the best seasons by a reliever in team history after posting a 1.05 ERA over 55 appearances. He occasionally held down the fort in the ninth inning when Jansen wasn’t available, but he also has only 12 career saves, so it might be better not to mess with a good thing and leave him to dominate the eighth.
If not Martin, the Red Sox could also turn the closer job over to Tanner Houck or Garrett Whitlock, both of whom have held the role in the past. Houck earned eight saves during the summer of 2022, including six in a two-week span in June, before injuries derailed his season. Whitlock unofficially became the guy late in 2021, though he still typically threw two innings at a time rather than follow the traditional save- situation blueprint.
The Red Sox could also add from outside the organization, perhaps signing free agent closer Jordan Hicks, but hopefully this entire conversation proves moot. Jansen is one of the best closers in baseball history and the Red Sox would be better off with him locking things down at the end of games rather than trying to outsmart themselves to save a few bucks.
Who in the minors is absolutely untouchable in trade talks? — Paul Z.
Nobody.
Seriously, at this point in the Red Sox competitive cycle, the club shouldn’t hesitate to do whatever it takes to improve the big league roster. And while I’m not advocating that Craig Breslow gut the farm system, the organization has amassed enough young talent that the Red Sox shouldn’t shy away from a bold move if the right guy is on the table.
Look at the infield. Right now the Red Sox have Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom and Triston Casas under team control for the next four years and beyond. Perhaps Marcelo Mayer could push his way into that group as well, but even if he does that still leaves standouts like Nick Yorke, Chase Meidroth, Blaze Jordan and Mikey Romero with their paths potentially blocked.
The same is true for the outfield. Masataka Yoshida will probably be around for four more years and the club could still add another big bat, which would potentially leave only one spot for Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony and Miguel Bleis.
Even if all of those players blossom into stars — they won’t — there just isn’t going to be enough room for everyone.
If there is anyone who’s probably the least likely to go, it’s probably Brayan Bello and Kyle Teel. Bello because he represents exactly the type of young pitcher the organization is trying to add more of, and Teel because he’s a oneof- one within the Red Sox system who could potentially be catching in the majors by the end of this season.
But as for the others, why not pick two, three or four and maximize their value now? That way you can strengthen the club while still leaving enough talent to build with later.
Where does Tyler O’neill fit into the Red Sox plans this season? — Ed H.
It’s difficult to say without knowing how the outfield is going to ultimately shake out, but assuming nothing changes I think it’s safe to say we’ll see O’neill playing a lot in left field.
As of this writing Boston’s best lineup would likely have Yoshida primarily at designated hitter, O’neill in left field, Jarren Duran in center and Wilyer Abreu in right. If the Red Sox were to sign Teoscar Hernandez then he might bump Abreu from right field, but in either case O’neill would still see regular time.
Two of O’neill’s most valuable qualities are his defense — he won both of his Gold Gloves while exclusively playing left field for St. Louis — and his bat against lefties. He has a career .816 OPS against lefties compared to .765 against righties, so it’s a safe bet that whenever the Red Sox face a lefty we’ll probably see a lot of lineups that include both him and Rob Refsnyder. And if there’s ever a righty who is particularly weak against lefties, maybe that’s when O’neill will sit and the Red Sox will load up on lefties with Yoshida, Duran and Abreu in the outfield.
Again, a lot could change here, but I’d bet O’neill will play just about every day.
Bryan Mata either makes the 26-man roster or he’s gone. What do you foresee? — Josh B.
I think Mata is probably going to get traded. It’s really hard to see how he’ll crack the opening day bullpen given all the other arms vying for spots, and with Justin Slaten also needing to make the roster, the Red Sox will probably need to prioritize the guys they can stash in Triple-a.
That’s why they cut Mauricio Llovera loose, but I also think Mata has enough value that he could be included as part of a larger deal.
Mata has the kind of stuff you can’t teach, and a guy who can throw 100 mph gas out of the bullpen is something that will be of interest to a lot of clubs. The trouble is his command has been terrible and his extensive run of injuries has hampered his development to the point where he’s now out of options and essentially has to make the team or be designated for assignment.
If Breslow eventually swings a deal for a starting pitcher or another outfielder, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Mata were included as the second or third prospect to sweeten the pot. If not, I suppose he’ll go into spring training and compete for a spot like everyone else. Maybe the club’s new pitching infrastructure could help unlock his potential and turn him into a lategame weapon, but personally I have my doubts and wouldn’t get my hopes up about seeing him pitch for the Red Sox, this year or maybe ever.