WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN BELICHICK’S POSSIBLE LAST PATRIOTS’ GAME
It’s come down to this.
Bill Belichick’s Patriots against the hated Jets.
Playoff hopes for both teams dissipated around Thanksgiving, leaving only pride and rivalry at stake. That will be enough Sunday, when speculation will swirl — along with snow — that Belichick may be coaching his last game in New England.
Whether or not Belichick returns next season, here’s what to watch for in the Patriots’ 2023 season finale:
When the Patriots run
That steady- eddy run game feels like a memory from long ago.
Thanks to opponents’ stacked boxes and injuries up front, Pats running back Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for 25, 27 and 39 yards the last three weeks. He’s averaged fewer than three yards per carry in all of those games and scored one rushing touchdown. The offense’s best runs have been Bailey Zappe scrambles, unscheduled scampers that catch a defense off-guard.
Few opponents have caught the Jets off-guard on the ground this season, where their defense ranks 11th in yards per carry allowed and top 10 by Expected Points Added (EPA). The Patriots have utmost respect for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and inside linebacker C. J. Mosley, who called out multiple plays in last year’s meeting at Gillette Stadium. Expect blocking Williams and Mosley on runs to be the game-plan focus for an offensive line that should again deploy backups at left tackle and left guard.
When the Patriots pass
The roller- coaster continues. Since Bailey Zappe took over on Dec. 3, the Patriots offense has become much more explosive at the cost of its efficiency. And that’s largely been fine by Bill O’brien and Co., who are scoring three more points per game with Zappe at quarterback than Mac Jones.
What the Pats cannot afford, however, are more turnovers. Zappe threw three interceptions last week at Buffalo, and more picks like that figure to be New York’s only path to victory. Look for Zappe to avoid Pro Bowl cornerback Sauce Gardner on the outside and instead feed his tight ends and running backs over the middle and in the flat. Elliott ranks second on the team in catches. The Jets’ pass defense ranks 28th at covering running backs by DVOA.
Though, it’s their pass rush (ranked fifth in pressure rate, despite blitzing at the secondlowest rate in the NFL) that has Belichick’s attention: “Starts with the pass rush, they have a really good defensive line,” Belichick said this week. “A lot of tackles for loss, a lot of pressure on the quarterback and had a lot of impressive defensive stats in games.”
When the Jets run
As bad as the Patriots have played, looked and felt on offense this season, it’s been worse for Gang Green. And the Jets may have set all-time marks for ineptitude were it nor for Breece Hall.
The Jets’ lead back has rushed for 816 yards and four touchdowns, while powering through and pulling away from defenses. Hall has dealt with some of the
NFL’S worst run-blocking, but averages 4.4 yards per carry and remains a functioning centerpiece of the offense. After the front office parted ways with Dalvin Cook earlier this week, Hall figures to be featured even more heavily.
One mismatch: Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux against Jets left guard Laken Tomlinson, the team’s worst-rated runblocker at Pro Football Focus. Godchaux, meanwhile, has dominated the middle of some recent divisional games, with help from fellow defensive tackle Christian Barmore and outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings, who are tied for the team lead with 11 tackles for loss.
When the Jets pass
No Aaron Rodgers, no Zach Wilson, no Tim Boyle. Welcome, Trevor Siemian.
The Jets’ fourth starting quarterback this season has appeared in four games, completing 58.6% of his passes for 654 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. Last week, he did enough against the Browns, passing for 261 yards, one touchdown and a pick. Siemian is a career journeyman who figures to rely heavily on No. 1 option Garrett Wilson.
Wilson has 70 more targets than anyone else on the team and leads in catches (93), receiving yards ( 1,008) and first downs (45). In three career meetings with the Patriots, Wilson has averaged just over four catches and 58 yards per game, while often facing double-teams on third down and inside the red zone. Hall, the Jets’ next leading receiver, might create mismatches if he goes head- to- head with linebackers Ja’whaun Bentley and/or Jahlani Tavai in coverage.
Game pick
Patriots 10, Jets 6