Red Sox being rewarded for faith in young starters
It seems like almost everything that could have gone wrong for the Red Sox this season, has.
Trevor Story is out for the year, and with him the promise of a meaningfully improved infield defense. Lucas Giolito, one of baseball’s most durable pitchers, is also out for the year, and fellow starters Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock are on the shelf too. Almost all of Boston’s best position players have missed time as well, including Rafael Devers, Tyler O’neill and now Triston Casas. Things have gotten so bad that the Red Sox fielded a veritable Triple-a lineup for much of the past week.
And yet, entering Monday, they’d won three straight and owned a better record than the high-powered Los Angeles Dodgers.
That the Red Sox are currently 13-10, third in the AL East and only 2.5 games behind the division-leading Yankees defies logic and the players and coaches deserve a lot of credit for keeping the ship afloat. Whether this stronger-than-expected start proves sustainable remains to be seen, but amid all of the setbacks there’s been one obvious bright spot that should give fans plenty of reason for optimism.
The club’s young starting pitchers are making the leap.
Red Sox ownership and the front office have rightfully drawn criticism for their handling of this past offseason, but so far their faith in the club’s young starters has been validated. Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Whitlock have all been excellent, and if their gains prove lasting then it could have a transformative impact on the club even if this year’s team ultimately falls out of contention.
Entering the week Crawford, Houck and Whitlock all have sub-2.00 ERAS, and after Sunday’s excellent start Bello is now down to 3.04. Crawford and Houck in particular have been outstanding, ranking among the two best starters in baseball through the season’s first month.
Crawford leads all MLB starters with a 0.66 ERA over 27.1 innings through five starts. His 1.7 wins above replacement ranks second in baseball among all players behind only Mookie Betts, and he ranks top 10 in baseball in hits per nine innings (5.268, 7th) and strikeouts (30, 10th). He also has yet to allow a home run.
Most encouragingly, Crawford is going deeper into games and has already pitched into the sixth inning three times. Last season he frequently fell off after 80 pitches and only surpassed five innings 10 times in 31 appearances.
Houck is enjoying a similar breakthrough. Through four starts he has a 1.35 ERA over 26.2 innings, and three of his starts have been f lat out spectacular. He threw six shutout innings in each of his first two outings, and last Wednesday he delivered one of the best performances by a Red Sox pitcher in recent franchise history, carving up the Cleveland Guardians for a dominant complete game shutout.
He and Crawford are both pitching like aces, something that would have seemed unrealistically optimistic heading into the season.
Bello, the club’s Opening Day starter, was comparatively underwhelming through his first few starts before getting back on track in his last two. In two of his first three starts he struck out three or fewer batters, and those were sandwiched around a dud in Oakland where he allowed four runs over five innings. But in each of his last two starts he’s pitched into the sixth, allowed two or fewer runs and struck out seven or more. That’ll get the job done, and his 3.04 ERA over 26.2 innings is more reflective of the type of pitcher Boston expected him to be this season.
As for Whitlock, his oblique injury was a setback but not one the team considers serious. The expectation is he’ll only miss a couple of starts, and before going on the injured list he was on a similar track as Crawford and Houck.
Through four starts Whitlock has posted a 1.96 ERA over 18.1 innings, and though he has yet to pitch into the sixth like his rotation-mates, he almost certainly would have in his last outing if he hadn’t been pulled after four innings and 54 pitches. Whitlock has also demonstrated a notably improved pitch mix, which should enable him to better navigate opposing lineups a second or third time through the order, something he struggled with last season.
It’s obviously early and the four still have to prove they can hold up over the long grind of a season, but it’s hard to imagine this group getting off to a better start. More importantly, Bello, Crawford, Houck and Whitlock are all under team control for at least the next three years, so if this month is a sign of things to come then the long-term ramifications could be massive.
For now the more immediate concern is surviving the club’s recent run of injuries, but all things considered the Red Sox have weathered the storm remarkably well. Coming into the season the sense was the Red Sox would go as far as their starting rotation could carry it, and in the face of incredible adversity the club’s starters have shouldered the load.