South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
Is it worth it to move Dragic?
If trade is made, other contracts must be packaged
The NBA’s offseason is both replete with food for thought as well as questionable when it comes to actual substance.
So whether Tyler Johnson going to the Houston Rockets for Ryan Anderson ever was an actual thing is not nearly as significant as the thought process it created regarding where the Miami Heat stand against the luxury tax, as well as with an ongoing glut at shooting guard.
And then, recently, from the offseason ether came the notion of a trade of Goran Dragic, possibly back to the Phoenix Suns, who seemingly are at the stage of open auditions for any veteran capable of playing point guard.
Whether there is substance to the speculation remains somewhat suspect, considering with or without a veteran point guard, the Suns remain among the longest of long shots to advance to the Western Conference playoffs.
But instead of considering landing spots, instead consider where the Heat stand with Dragic and if the time is right to move on.
From a roster standpoint, Dragic is the lone true point veteran guard in Erik Spoelstra’s backcourt. But the reality is that Dragic, except for his oneman fast breaks, rarely is cast as a point guard in Spoelstra’s position-less approach. Instead, Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Justise Winslow or, with a return, Dwyane Wade are just as likely to be getting the offense into motion.
Still, without Dragic, and without a veteran point guard in return, it would leave Tyler Johnson as the most likely replacement starter. On one hand, it would allow the Heat to see if they could get value out of the remaining two seasons on Johnson’s contract. On the other, Johnson against defensive pressure isn’t always an optimal combination when attempting to advance the ball through the backcourt.
But more than personnel, there are two greater issues at play: Would trading Dragic significantly alter the Heat’s playoff outlook? Would dealing Dragic significantly impact the Heat’s salary cap?
The answer to the first question is that with Dragic the Heat likely set up as a team in the lower portion of the Eastern Conference playoffs race and that without Dragic the Heat … likely set up as a team in the lower portion of the Eastern Conference playoffs race. Yes, Dragic was an All-Star last season, but the Heat also need to find ways to get Waiters, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow on the court, as well as continue to explore the possibilities of Wayne Ellington, with another free agency approaching. And that does not even get into Wade or the comeback bid of Rodney McGruder.
Then there are the cap implications. With almost the entire NBA at or near the salary cap, any trade likely would require taking back significant salary for 2018-19. Such a permutation, however, also could be enough to get the Heat back under the luxury tax. The greater cap implication would be taking on expiring 2018-19 salaries in exchange for wiping Dragic’s $19.2 million 2019-20 salary off the books.
The reality, though, is that even with Dragic off the 2019-20 books, it still would leave the Heat in excess of $100 million of salary commitments in a year when the cap is expected to fall at about $109 million. In other words, not even enough to replace Dragic, let alone sign an A-list free agent.
So the only cap benefit of dealing off Dragic’s 2019-20 salary would be if the Heat would be able to also offload either the 2019-20 salaries of Hassan Whiteside or Tyler Johnson, or a variety of lesser salaries. Divesting themselves of Dragic $19.2 million, alone, will not move up the Heat’s free-agency timetable by a year.
Perhaps a more significant element is the draft. Before last June’s draft, there was something to be said about the Heat reacquiring their unprotected 2021 first-round pick from the Suns that initially went to Phoenix in the February 2015 trade for Dragic. That pick, however, was dealt on draft night to the Philadelphia 76ers, who, of course, have Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz at point guard, with little need for 32-year-old Dragic.
For their part, the Suns retain their own, tempting first-round picks going forward, as well as a Milwaukee Bucks first-rounder protected 1-3 and 17-30 in next June’s draft.
What the Heat can’t get caught up in is the reality that they shipped two firstrounders to the Suns (including this past June’s) for Dragic. The value already received for the 2016 run within one game of the East finals, the drama of the 30-11 finish in 2017, and then this past season’s playoff push, stand as value already realized.
But a quality first-round pick and the cracking open of the door for a possible move into 2019 free agency could prove tempting enough to consider trade possibilities, even if it leaves the Heat pointless.