Week 13 picks

Last week: 13-2 (10-5 vs. spread) Season: 118-56-2 (85-84-7 vs. spread)

Eli Manning is starting behind that porous offensive line, and he won’t have much more than a blink to throw the ball against the Bears’ smothering defense. No matter who’s at QB, the Bears roll.

Bears 28, Giants 17

The mobile Lamar Jackson likely is starting for the Ravens, and he gives them a different dimension. The Falcons are a better team at home, but they have issues, especially on defense. Go with the Ravens defense. Ravens 24, Falcons 20

The Panthers should bounce back from their three-point home loss to the Seahawks, and the Buccaneers put a good all-around game together in a rout of the 49ers. The Bucs defense is beat up, though. Panthers 27, Buccaneers 23

The Bills have a little confidence, but Miami is a tough place to play. The Dolphins are 4-1 at home and have been pretty stingy all season; they’re eighth in fewest points allowed. Here’s betting they hold serve at home. Dolphins 24, Bills 20

This was a close game in Indianapolis three weeks ago, back when the Jaguars still had a pulse. The Colts are rolling on offense behind Andrew Luck, and Cody Kessler is going to have a tough time keeping pace. Colts 27, Jaguars 21

The Texans have quietly won eight in a row, and their defense is playing well despite a vulnerable secondary. The Browns are gaining confidence and they are believing in rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Texans 27, Browns 24

The Bengals have imploded and are starting Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins over the Chargers and Steelers, and have a favorable schedule from here forward. Broncos 30, Bengals 23

Sean McVay knows how to keep his players focused, and the Rams should burst out of the open date. This is a good place to build some confidence against the run and get Aqib Talib back in the flow. Rams 38, Lions 20

The Packers are far from perfect, but they’re a lot better than the Cardinals, plus the game is at Lambeau Field. The Packers will establish the run, Aaron Rodgers will execute the play-action and have a big day. Packers 35, Cardinals 17

The Raiders have no pass rush, so Patrick Mahomes will be back there all day picking them apart. The Raiders might have a shred of pride that keeps this interesting for a bit, but the Chiefs are just too much. Chiefs 34, Raiders 20

The Titans will bounce back and have a decent defensive performance here. It’s hard to run on the Jets, so this should be a low-scoring game that’s fairly close, but go with the home team.

Titans 21, Jets 17

The 49ers are limping into this, and they can’t rely on their quarterback play, particularly in such a tough stadium for visitors. The Seahawks can run it or throw it, and they still have a pulse.

Seahawks 28, 49ers 20

With Rob Gronkowski back and healthy, the Patriots are a different animal. But the Vikings defense is coming alive, and they can rush the passer with four. It’s hard to pick against Pats at home, but… Vikings 31, Patriots 28

The Chargers are perfectly capable of winning this game, even with Melvin Gordon out. But the edge goes to the Steelers because of the way they rise to the occasion in prime-time games.

Steelers 31, Chargers 27

The NFC East is knotted tight, and both these teams badly need this win. The Eagles had a tough time slowing Saquon Barkley, and their secondary is banged up. The Redskins are rested and capable. Redskins 24, Eagles 21