South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
Hyde: Way to win isn’t losing
Tanking a season to get a franchise QB doesn’t work for Dolphins.
Either the Dolphins have been walking in the wilderness too long, or I’ve been getting too much sun following them all these lonely years, because some of what they’re planning actually makes sense to me.
Some of it.
Not all of it.
The corporate flow chart going through one person. Smart. Ending this false premise that they’re “close” and so will can quit finding stop-gap players. Smart. The realization after seven years to take the keys from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Hey, they get no points for being smart by this time.
Finally, there’s the suggested idea they need to tank a season or three — maybe finish 3-13, Dolphins owner Steve Ross said — to get a franchise quarterback and set up their roster in a manner that allows a sustained winner.
I’m not on board.
This isn’t the recipe to win in the NFL. A lost team will try anything, you see. That’s why they’re lost. The big concern is that Ross is so lost after trying everything else that he has thrown up his hands in the air and said they might as well be bad enough to draft a top-ranked quarterback.
Sure, that could work. Indianapolis, after all, lucked into drafting Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick just as Peyton Manning, a previous first pick, was again. But to understand how losing doesn’t beget greatness, Luck’s Colts are in the playoffs for the first
time in four years.
Equally telling to the Dolphins’ new plan, only two quarterbacks drafted at No. 1 are in the playoffs this year. The other is the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff. But the Rams didn’t tank for Goff’s pick. They traded up from 15th to the top spot for Goff. They were bold and smart, in other words, not awful.
Let’s take this further. The only two quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 to win Super Bowls this millennium were the Manning brothers, Peyton and Eli (they won four combined). That’s it. Two. In the top 10 picks.
You see, tanking purposely and drafting high isn’t the model for winning in the NFL. Being smart is. Having a great front office is. Showing boldness and vision is. That’s why the decision to promote Chris Grier to the football czar of the team is the biggest move they’ll make for years — for better or worse.
The Dolphins don’t need to Tank-for-Tua or Bomb-for-Fromme, no matter how many times we yuk it up with those descendants of Suck-for-Luck in the coming months.
They need to Can’t-Miss Chris in the draft room. He’s been it that room for years, too. To spin that in a positive way, maybe after seeing all the mistakes he’s educated what not to do.
Grier’s shopping list is daunting. Both lines are a mess. They need another cornerback and a top receiver. Their tight end and middle linebacker are young questions. And then there’s the issue of quarterback that’s plagued this franchise for years.
Maybe tanking will deliver a great quarterback to the Dolphins. But, again, look at the data if you think that’s the right way to go. Of the 12 quarterbacks in these playoffs, six (Luck, Goff, Phillip Rivers, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes) were taken in the top 15 of the draft.
That’s not the telling stat, though. Of those six, five were involved in trades. Luck was the only quarterback taken by the original team in the original draft slot. All the others were part of some bigger plan and bolder design. Again, smart teams win.
The other six quarter-
“You see, tanking purposely and drafting high isn’t the model for winning in the NFL.”
backs in the draft tell another story. Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees were drafted 32nd overall. Russell Wilson and Nick Foles were third-round picks. Dak Prescott was a fourthround pick, and Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick.
So more than a top-shelf draft pick, you need someone who recognizes talent. Grier probably will have to decide this draft whether Ohio State quarterback Dwyane Haskins is potentially better than anyone coming out in 2019. With the 13th pick, he’d have to move up to get Haskins. And outwit other teams.
That’s a lot of big conclusions and moving parts to pull off in a draft. But that’s how winning teams win. Not simply by losing. Not by being so bad they’re first in the food line. If they’re not smart enough to find a quarterback, they’re not smart enough to assemble all the necessary other parts to win.
Yes, to the Dolphins realizing they aren’t
“close” and planning accordingly. Yes, to putting one person in charge of football operations. Yes, to finally realizing Tannehill isn’t the right guy.
But winning by losing? Dumb teams will try anything. That’s why they’re dumb teams. Let’s hope Grier has a better vision and smarter plan than just being awful.