South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
Should Dolphins tank for Tua?
It’s fun. It’s easy. It’s popular, too, touting Sunday as a Tank-for-Tua Bowl, as winless Washington and the winless Miami Dolphins play in the kind of game never seen at Hard Rock Stadium.
But here’s a parallel universe to consider: Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a great college quarterback. He very well could be the No. 1 pick come April. But that’s not yet certain and he’s not a generational prospect as some suggest.
Don’t take my word on that.
Take the word of two NFL scouts and a former personnel executive.
“The parade for [Tua] is ahead of what we know,” one scout said.
“Tua’s not [Andrew] Luck,’’
said one scout of the recently retired Indianapolis quarterback who sprouted the Suck-for-Luck campaign before the 2011 draft. “He’s not that once-a-decade talent that was head and shoulders above everyone else.”
To be clear, all three men said they like Tua. His arm. His mind. His poise. They wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s the top pick in the draft. They just aren’t ready to pronounce him as the slam-dunk franchise quarterback that’s popular now.
Some of this is admittedly belief in the “professional process,” as one said, until all the information is gathered. The season isn’t done. The individual workouts, draft combine and interviews are off in the distance.
“It’s like a math equation figuring out the quarterbacks in this draft,’’ one said. “You gather the information and work the equation. Well, there’s a lot of information gathering and work to be done yet.”
The Dolphins are doing their due diligence. They ramped up watching these quarterbacks last year, knowing the importance of this decision. Scouts, as with all teams, are everywhere. General Manager Chris Grier has gone to games of Tua, Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Georgia’s Jake Fromm this year.
When you ask what’s wrong with Tua, all the men pushed back against the question. Nothing is exactly wrong, they said.
It’s that no quarterback is perfect. Tua has durability concerns with minor knee and ankle surgery.
He’s listed at 6 feet 1, and is probably 6 feet, they agree. Drew Brees and Russell Wilson won Super Bowls proving size doesn’t matter. Or does it? Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield, at 6 feet, has had 31 passes batted down this year.
“Look, in this kind of decision everything matters,’’ one scout said.
Everything will be tested, too. Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning and football dropout Ryan Leaf had opposite pro careers. But the debate over who was better before the 1999 draft was so intense that Indianapolis General Manager Bill Polian had Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh work out each player.
Polian had the top pick and wanted a backstop on his thoughts. Walsh reported Manning would be good immediately while it would take Leaf a few years to develop. Polian drafted Manning and won big.
“There’s only so much you can really know about any player, but especially a quarterback, until you get them in hand,’’ one scout said. “Why do you think [Tom] Brady went in the sixth round and Wilson the third round?”
Why did only Kansas City covet Patrick Mahomes enough to trade up? Or Philadelphia do the same with Carson Wentz? Gardner Minshew II is this year’s addition. A sixthround rookie might be sparking Jacksonville back to relevancy.
Smarts and luck, you see, can matter as much as draft position. All you know about the Dolphins tank job is they don’t trust their smarts anymore. So they want in the front of the line for this draft.
Tank-for-Tua, is the people’s choice. But not everyone is there just yet.
“It’s like climbing over a mountain range,’’ the former executive said.
“There’s work to do climbing one mountain, then another, and another to get to an answer. Maybe when we get over that final mountain we’re in the same spot everyone [wanting Tua] is right now.”
Maybe the slogan isn’t a full-out Tank for Tua. Maybe it’s Trust The Tank. Sunday’s idea, in either case for the Dolphins, is taking them one loss at a time.