South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
Assessing preseason ups and downs
Herro, Jones have been solid; Johnson needs to step it up
MIAMI — It was mid-July, at the conclusion of the NBA’s free-agency frenzy, when we paused in this space to rank the resulting Miami Heat roster.
Two months later, on the eve of the regular season, we look back at what we thought then and what we (think we) know now.
First, where we had the Heat’s Core 14 in mid-July:
1. Jimmy Butler; 2. Bam Adebayo; 3. Justise Winslow; 4. Tyler Herro; 5. Goran Dragic; 6. Dion Waiters; 7. James Johnson; 8. Derrick Jones Jr.; 9.
Kelly Olynyk; 10. KZ Okpala; 11. Kendrick Nunn; 12. Duncan Robinson; 13. Meyers Leonard; 14. Yante Maten (this was before Udonis Haslem announced his return for a 17th season, with Maten released as a result).
The revised hierarchy:
1. Jimmy Butler (same): This ranking might not change for the next four years. At the moment, this has to be his team. And the way the NBA salary cap might be headed in the wake of the China kerfuffle, his salary might remain the highest on the Heat’s books over the next four seasons.
2. Bam Adebayo (same): Arguably as essential to the Heat’s power rotation as Butler is to the perimeter rotation. No, they’re not a Big Two in the NBA’s current sense, but their versatility makes it easier to fit the rest of the pieces.
3. Tyler Herro (up one): We had him behind Justise Winslow in our initial rankings, but shooting is the most valued asset in today’s NBA, and Herro showed during the preseason that he already is NBA elite in that aspect. He has made the league
notice.
4. Justise Winslow (down one): It’s not that Winslow struggled during the preseason, but what sets
Herro apart is that he has an elite-level NBA skill, with his shooting. By contrast, it remains unclear whether Winslow will move to an elite level with any element of his skill-set, although the playmaking is encouraging, if not uneven.
5. Derrick Jones Jr. (up three): Until the start of the preseason, it appeared Jones would, at best, be an end-of-rotation role player. But the energy he injects into the lineup has been undeniable. The jolt is real, and spectacular.
6. Goran Dragic (down one): This sixth-man thing just might have legs, with Friday night another step forward. Perhaps this is where Dragic’s next career chapter starts — in reserve.
7. Dion Waiters (down one): The conditioning hardly earned rave reviews during camp, leading to speculation that any additional stumble could have him on the James Johnson-like outs. This is a placement with an asterisk (a Kendrick Nunn asterisk).
8. Kelly Olynyk (up one): He has worked so well alongside Adebayo, that, alone, has him as essential, because Adebayo remains essential. It looks like he is past the worst with the knee injury he suffered during the summer.
9. Kendrick Nunn (up two): Summer league was no mirage. The grit is real, as is the possibility of eventually (if not already) challenging Dion Waiters for minutes.
10. Meyers Leonard (up three): OK, totally misread this one. Instead of salarycap throw-in to the Hassan Whiteside trade, Leonard’s shooting and passing could have him interchangeable in the rotation with
Olynyk.
11. Duncan Robinson (up one): The preseason starts came as somewhat of a surprise, but there he was, in the first five, on a regular basis. Looks like no round trips to Sioux Falls this time around, but he has to start shooting as well in games as in practice.
12. James Johnson (down five): Not sure that much, if any, trust remains after the preseason conditioning contretemps. It well could take injuries to others to create the possibility of playing time.
13. KZ Okpala (down three): A bit rawer than expected. There will be plenty of work to be done in the G League for a player who sets up as a project.
14. Chris Silva: Added on one of the Heat’s two twoway contracts. Could wind up with more minutes this season than Haslem.
15. Udonis Haslem: The roster spot came with the waiving of Yante Maten. It will be interesting to see what Maten now accomplishes in the Boston Celtics’ system.