South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
Winderman: For Heat, a win, loss
Leonard's recovery likely to affect Olynyk’s status
While the health of the NBA’s players ultimately will determine the fitness of the league’s plan to return, the framework in place for the July 31 restart sets up initial winners and losers in the process.
Understanding that, as NBA Commissioner Adam Silver noted amid the coronavirus pandemic, “we’re in the equivalent of the first inning” with the plan, a look at elements of the restart equation from a Miami Heat perspective.
Winner: Meyers Leonard. The Heat’s best starting lineup features the 7-foot, 3-point shooting big man. The four-month layoff
should allow for a healthy return after missing the final 16 games before the March 11 shutdown due to a severe ankle sprain. The ability for Leonard to again showcase his chemistry could go a long way toward a follow-up Heat contract in October in free agency.
Loser: Kelly Olynyk. Yes, Olynyk was an instant winner with his $400,000 playoff bonus now assured. But if Leonard can seamlessly return, it could change the Heat’s long view with Olynyk, who has one season, a $13.2 million player option, remaining on his contract. A next step could be the Heat moving off that money.
Loser, too: Hassan Whiteside. An impending free agent, the former Heat center could find himself pushed aside amid the Trail Blazers’ restart, with big men Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins expected back from injury and both under contract to Portland for next season.
Winner: Tyler Herro. Out for 15 games with an ankle injury before returning against the Charlotte Hornets on the night the league shut down, Herro will have eight meaningful regular-season games to potentially earn a spot on first-team All-Rookie. An advantage will be that other contenders, such as Coby White, Darius Garland, P.J. Washington, Eric Paschall, DeAndre Hunter and R.J. Barrett, can only watch from the sidelines, with their teams not part of the restart.
Loser: Corporate productivity. It’s a lot easier to sneak in a Heat daytime game during the workweek (which could be the case with the cramped scheduling) while working from home. It’s like the NCAA Tournament … without the hidden phone trick.
Winner: Solomon Hill. The forward acquired from the Memphis Grizzlies along with Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder at the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline was eight minutes shy at the shutdown of a $531,614 bonus for 1,000 minutes played. While the NBA likely would have signed off anyway on a prorated bonus, coach Erik Spoelstra assuredly can find eight minutes for Hill over the remaining eight regular-season games.
Loser: Olynyk. On the opposite side of the bonus scale is the $1 million bonus Olynyk holds for playing 1,700 minutes. Prorated to the Heat’s 73-game schedule, at 1,089 minutes at the moment, it leaves him 424 minutes shy of the needed playing time. The only way to make it now would be to play every minute in eight consecutive overtime games.
Winner: Andre Iguodala. The Heat dealt for the 36-year-old three-time champion for moments just like this, the playoff race and the postseason. Now he gets the benefit of a full month of camp, after being rushed into the rotation.
Loser: Duncan Robinson. Averaging 3.7 3-pointers per game, the second-year forward had the chance to become just the third NBA player to convert 300 or more in a season, joining Stephen Curry and James Harden. Now it would require averaging more than seven conversions over the eight added games.
Winner: Pat Riley and the Heat front office. The most meaningful read on young prospects is the read that comes in the playoffs. The Heat now get that with a playoff debut for Robinson, Herro and Kendrick Nunn, as well as just the second postseason for Bam Adebayo.
Loser: Heat scouting department. The Heat’s first-round pick remains a work in progress. Locked in at No. 23 during the shutdown, with eight regular-season games added, the pick could fall as low as No. 28 or rise as high as No. 18. That could prove limiting when it comes to the Heat attempts in the interim to attract prospects for interviews.
In the balance: Trade dynamics. If it goes south for certain teams in the restart, it could create a robust trade market (Bradley Beat? Joel Embiid? Gordon Hayward? LaMarcus Aldridge?). Based on the Heat’s assets, it could become a buyer’s market.