South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
In East, 6th not sensible for Heat
MIAMI — “Built for the playoffs.”
It is the phrasing found in many forecasts for the Miami Heat’s 2021-22 season.
The concern is that the season, however, does not begin with the playoffs but rather on Thursday against the visiting Milwaukee Bucks at FTX Arena, with 81 additional regular-season games to follow for the Heat.
And that is the rub when it comes to an older roster that is not exactly deep with proven reserve talent.
In April, May, perhaps even June, an argument could be made that a roster with the two-way games of Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo is capable of melding to the moment. And when it comes to playoff closers, there are Butler and Lowry as 1 and 1A, in either order.
But it’s also about more than getting to the postseason in the NBA’s play-in world. It’s about getting at least a No. 6 seed to avoid the potential one-and-done or two-and-done scenarios for a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
Last season, it took until the final week for the Heat to be liberated from such a minefield. And even then, all No. 6 meant was being swept 4-0 by the eventual-champion Bucks in the first round.
And then this past week came a sobering reminder from the preseason forecast at fivethirtyeight, whose primary model has the Heat finishing No. 6 in the East at 44-38, but only by virtue of a tiebreaker against the No. 7 Indiana Pacers, and just one game ahead of the No. 8 New York Knicks. Fivethirtyeight’s alternate model also has the Heat at No. 6 in the East, at 42-40, three games ahead of No. 7 Indiana.
Granted, many unknowns remain in the conference, from Kyrie Irving to Ben Simmons and the corresponding realities of the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.
But still it’s sobering.
Per each of fivethiryeight’s two projection models, the East will shake out at the end of the regular season as: 1. Bucks, 2. 76ers, 3. Hawks, 4. Nets, 5. Celtics, 6. Heat,
7. Pacers, 8. Knicks, 9. Raptors, 10. Bulls, 11. Wizards, 12. Hornets, 13. Cavaliers, 14. Pistons, 15. Magic.
Per fivethiryeight’s RAPTOR projection, the Heat have a 69% chance of making the playoffs, 4% chance of making the NBA Finals and 2% chance of a title. Per the site’s Elo forecast, the Heat have a 61% chance of making the playoffs.
Of such forecasting, Adebayo said as the Heat closed out their preseason practice sessions, “We’re going to worry about Miami. We’re not worried about the outside stuff. We don’t worry about the other teams.”
Only they have to because No. 6 wasn’t good enough last season, and something lower would be even more perilous to navigate.
So some thoughts on how it might shake out from this perspective in East, where the playoff-quality depth is at least 11 deep, the conference offering few light nights:
1. Bucks:
The core is back, and this time with championship confidence. The lack of offseason drama makes Milwaukee the logical choice as conference favorite.
2. Nets:
Some foresee a dive depending on Kyrie Irving’s whims. But how can a team with Kevin Durant and James Harden not be considered elite and a conference favorite, regardless of the latest orbit of the mercurial third wheel?
3. Celtics:
This is higher than many forecast, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown rank with any 1-2 in the conference, now with the stability provided by Al Horford and the hunger of Dennis Schroder.
4. Heat:
Last season was eye-opening to the realities of opening the postseason on the road. Yes, there is an older roster, but it’s one aware of how last season’s seed created an insurmountable obstacle.
5. 76ers:
This all depends on what becomes of Ben Simmons. Even a deal for the likes of a CJ McCollum would call for an upward calibration.
6. Hawks:
Will the NBA crackdown on unnatural shooting motions create mind games for Trae Young? Was last season the type of overachievement some pointed to with the 2020 Heat?
7. Pacers:
The talent is there with Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Myles Turner and T.J. Warren. And now there is the coaching of Rick Carlisle.
8. Bulls:
Lots of talent for Billy Donovan to orchestrate, with Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, etc. But will it mesh?
9. Knicks:
Do Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier make things better or just more complex for Tom Thibodeau and Julius Randle?
10. Raptors:
It sure seems as if some are sleeping on a roster that features Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Goran Dragic, Scottie Barnes and the coaching of Nick Nurse. That actually sounds more like a No. 6 seed.
11. Hornets:
Again, a team that seemingly is stronger than such placement, considering the presence of Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington.
12. Wizards:
There is a better quality of depth this time around Bradley Beal, but no one else is capable of the heavy lifting achieved by Russell Westbrook at the end of last season.
13. Cavaliers, 14. Pistons, 15. Magic:
The only three teams without legitimate playoff prospects in the East this season. These are the games you cannot lose if you are set on a high seed.