Pats: Bye is on line; Dolphins: Bye-bye

Omar Kelly

When the Dolphins run

There are two NFL quarterbacks leading their respective teams in rushing this season. One is Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. And the other, oddly enough, is Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins must address their running back position as much as any position this offseason, either through the draft or free agency, or both. Fitzpatrick, rookie Patrick Laird and two other running backs will try to support the Dolphins offense on the ground against the Patriots seventh-ranked run defense and first-ranked defense overall. Edge: Patriots

When the Patriots run

New England, on the other hand, has three running backs leading the way, starting with former American Heritage Plantation star Sony Michel, who leads the Patriots with 838 yards and six touchdowns this season. Former St. Thomas Aquinas standout James White also is a threat from the backfield as New England’s second-leading receiver with 612 yards and four touchdowns. And Rex Burkhead adds depth to New England’s running game that will face Miami’s defense, which has improved the past few weeks, but still ranks sixth worst in the NFL against the run. Edge: Patriots

When the Dolphins pass

Ryan Fitzpatrick, with 15 years and 155 games in the NFL, threw for a career-high 419 yards with four touchdowns in Miami’s win over Bengals last week. That performance saw Fitzpatrick throw touchdowns to receiver DeVante Parker, tight end Mike Gesicki (two) and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins against the NFL’s third-worst defense. Now, Fitzpatrick will play on the road against the NFL’s best defense this season in the season finale on Sunday. Edge: Patriots

PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 42, DOLPHINS 10

When the Patriots pass

Tom Brady and the New England offense have surged in recent weeks against the Bengals and Bills since losing back-toback games against the Texans and Chiefs. And that’s not good news for the rest of the NFL as the postseason nears. Brady and the Patriots have the No. 6 NFL offense, averaging 26.4 points per game and will face a Dolphins team that gave up 23 straight points to the Bengals last week in the fourth quarter alone. Edge: Patriots

Special teams

Dolphins coach Brian Flores mentioned one distinct special teams note before Sunday’s game: The Patriots have blocked four punts this season. An interesting fact for Flores to know, and one that could come into play in New England, as the Dolphins have spent all season without having a punt by Matt Haack blocked. The Dolphins could pull off another one of their special teams plays, whether it’s an onside kick or touchdown pass, to catch New England off-guard and swing momentum. Still, they’ll have to do so against one of the better special teams units in the league. Edge: Patriots

Intangibles

Sunday’s game will be a homecoming of sorts for Dolphins coach Brian Flores, who helped the Patriots win four of their six Super Bowl titles in a variety of roles during his 15 years within the organization. … The outcome will play a significant role in the final 2020 NFL draft order, where the Dolphins could pick anywhere from No. 2 to No. 6. Heading into Week 17, the Bengals already clinched No. 1, the Redskins sit at No. 2, the Lions are No. 3, the Giants are No. 4 and the Dolphins are No. 5. An upset win over the Patriots could bounce Miami out of the top five, while a loss keeps them within that threshold. The Dolphins would need the Redskins, Lions and Giants all to win as heavy underdogs this week to jump up to No. 2. … The Patriots, on the other hand, need a win to secure a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. Every team that has played in the Super Bowl the past six seasons has had a first-round playoff bye. Edge: Patriots

MADDIE MEYER/GETTY Stephon Gilmore has used this season to establish himself as the league’s best cornerback. Not only does he take on the opposition’s best receiver each week, but he’s managed to produce turnovers (six interceptions) and points (two TDs off interceptions) this season. Gilmore will likely get assigned DeVante Parker. It would benefit Miami to move Parker around, putting the split end in motion often to hopefully create secondary breakdowns from the NFL’s stingiest defense. The Dolphins might be last in the NFL when it comes to rushing — averaging 72.9 yards per game — but the run game has made some improvements the past three weeks. The Patriots are allowing 97.7 rushing yards per game, and holding opponents to the fewest rushing TDs this season (six). The Dolphins have scored 24 or more points four times this season, and three of those games were victories. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s presence at quarterback has helped stabilize Miami’s offense. Since the Dolphins returned from their Week 6 bye, the offense has been averaging 333.7 yards (20th). The key is to remain efficient in the red zone, where the Dolphins are turning 63.2 percent of drives that reach the 20-yard line into touchdowns during that post-bye week stretch. Patriots quarterbackTom Brady celebrates after running backRex Burkhead scores a touchdown against the Bills in the fourth quarter on Dec. 21.

There’s only one formula that has been proven successful when it comes to beating Tom Brady, and that’s pressuring him up the middle. But teams struggle to do so. It will be interesting to see if he can get his defensive front, which features Davon Godchaux, Christian Wilkins and now Zach Sieler, to execute them. The Dolphins need to have their linebackers play an effective twist-and-stunt game to get pressure on Brady.

The Patriots lean on their run game for three things: to score TDs, to produce thirdand-manageable situations, and to finish out games. The Dolphins front seven must do a good job preventing Sony Michel (six rushing TDs), James White (4.0 yards per carry) and Rex Burkhead (three rushing TDs) from doing their jobs efficiently.