South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Is being built for Bucks key for Heat to survive in East?
MIAMI — A Christmas Day loss to the Philadelphia 76ers notwithstanding, only one team in the Eastern Conference has been able to separate itself from a tightly bunched pack of playoff contenders.
In many ways, that not only makes the Milwaukee Bucks the targeted team in the East, but potentially one best avoided until as late in the process as possible.
With that in mind, we contacted a long-time NBA advance scout for perspective on what is needed to beat the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, whether there could be angling of avoidance when it comes to the race for the Nos. 4-5 seeds (which would face the top seed in the second round), and how the Heat would match up in a potential series against Milwaukee.
With his own team involved in the race, the scout offered his thoughts with assurances of anonymity.
“The biggest thing about Milwaukee certainly is that Giannis is going to challenge you,” the scout said. “And what he’s doing now is shooting the three. If he does that, he’s unstoppable. He’s driving into the lane and not being contested. So you need some thick, some wide bodies to get in that lane and just keep him out of there, and try, if you can. But that’s the tall task.”
Asked to relate that challenge to the Heat roster, the response was encouraging.
“You have the best player in the league in Giannis. He’s really hard to stop. You really have to be solid in the middle,” he said. “I think Miami has the ability with [Bam] Adebayo and [Meyers] Leonard and some big guys. You can’t let him get into the middle.”
Closeout speed, which had been a Heat hallmark during the Big Three era, is another area cited as essential against the Bucks’ barrage of threes.
“The other things is their 3-point shooting,” the scout said. “They’re really, really shooting it well. And you really have to get out to [Brook] Lopez. Even with Giannis and [Khris] Middleton, Lopez is the killer, coming down as the trailer, and burying the three. He’s just getting uncontested threes. Bigs just don’t come out.”
That is where the Heat’s versatility could come into play, with enough long or bulky bodies in Adebayo, Derrick Jones Jr. or even
Justise Winslow to alter the equation, even with smaller lineups.
But where the scouts sees the Heat as possibly the best matchup against the Bucks is on the other side of the ball.
“I like Miami in the sense that, I think, you can never have enough good shooters,” he said. “The addition of [Tyler] Herro and now [Duncan] Robinson stepping up, those two right there.
“You guys added two really good shooters and you added [Jimmy] Butler. I’m not surprised by their success. You guys have been the surprise of the East to some people. But the way they changed the team completely is incredible. Milwaukee is good because they shoot the ball. Miami’s good because they shoot the ball now.”
Such shooting is among the reasons the 76ers were able to push past the Bucks on Christmas, going 21 of
44 from beyond the arc. It also is a factor of Mike Budenholzer’s approach, with the Bucks coach known for sacrificing the
3-point line defensively, prioritizing paint protection.
“You guys can match up with them because of perimeter shooting,” the scout said. “Now, for you, you’ll have some other tough outs.”
And that is what could make the race for seedings so essential, with the Heat, 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers spending much of the past month within a game or two of each other.
Come March and especially April, the scout said he could see East contenders searching for more favorable matchups.
While the bottom of the East likely will serve up first-round fodder to the No. 1 seed (presumably Bucks), the rest of the East could angle away from the Nos. 4-5 seeds that feed into the second round against the No. 1-No. 8 first-round winner.
“Right now, the Bucks are the team you’re looking at getting to the Finals,” the scout, fresh off a trip to Milwaukee, noted. “They’re so well coached. And they have the talent, the best superstar in the East right now.
“It’s like when LeBron [James] was with the Heat. You shouldn’t be in any rush to face Giannis. Any of those other teams at the top of the East can beat each other, have a chance to get to the conference finals. It all depends on who you have to play and who you’re built to play.
“Everybody will be a tough out. But Milwaukee, that’s the one.”