South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Chance at No. 1 only matters during playoffs
Dream of Stanley Cup, not top draft pick, spurring team
Try to make a run or roll the dice at getting pick No. 1?
That’s the predicament the Florida Panthers now unexpectedly face as they prepare for a potential return to play in a five-game postseason series against the New York Islanders. The stakes of that series grew by a serious magnitude Friday night as Phase 1 of the NHL lottery granted the No. 1 pick — expected to be Alexis Lafreniere, an 18-year-old Canadian winger — to a team yet to be determined. That team could be the Panthers. While 15 teams were eligible for Friday night’s first phase of the draft lottery, only the seven that did not qualify for the 24-team playoffs were explicitly listed.
The rest, to be determined based on the results of the first round of the playoffs, were assigned a letter — with descending odds at the top pick from A to H. Those teams will be the eight losers in the opening round.
The lottery featured three separate drawings for each of the top three picks, weighted toward those with the lowest percentage of points when the season was suspended. When the NHL’s deputy commissioner Bill Daly revealed that a team “yet to be determined” — Team E — would select first, the dynamic of the NHL’s expanded playoff system changed drastically.
The rest of the top-eight is locked in: The Los Angeles Kings will pick at No. 2, the Ottawa Senators at No. 3 and No. 5, the Detroit Red Wings at No. 4, the Anaheim Ducks at No. 6, the New Jersey Devils at No.
7 and the Buffalo Sabres at No. 8. Confused yet?
In simpler terms, the Panthers’ current situation just got a whole lot more interesting. If they win their opening-round series against the New York Islanders, they create a real shot to make a playoff run, the kind this team envisioned when it brought in coach Joel Quenneville and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky during the offseason.
Florida hasn’t made the playoffs since
2016 and hasn’t won a playoff series since its Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 1996.
This front office has been clear and aggressive about its goal to get back to the playoffs.
“Let’s stop talking and start acting,” general manager Dave Tallon said before the season.
But if they lose that de facto play-in against the Islanders, the Panthers would be entered into the second lottery, with a chance to select Lafreniere, the consensus top talent in the draft class.
An optimist sees this as a win-win. A cynic might counter with a real risk-reward consideration.
It’s unlikely Florida’s front office would even pose these questions. There will be no entertaining even a notion of “tanking.” This season came with the expectation of making the playoffs, and to win once there.
Getting a better swing at a potentially elite talent does not usurp that pressure, particularly given the lifeline this playoff format presented.
“There was doubt before [the pandemic],” Tallon said May 28. “We had 13 games left in the regular season. We probably had to win eight or nine of those to get into the regular playoff scenario, but now we know what the deal is. Now you’ve got the chance to win three games and move on and have a chance to do something special.”
The Panthers, of course, have frequented the lottery in recent history, qualifying for it in nine of the last 11 years. They last received the first overall pick in 2014, taking defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who’s been one of the team’s most reliable players over the last six years.
Still, Lafreniere is seen by most experts as being on a whole different level. Over the last three years in the QMJHL, he has totaled 185 points, including 79 goals.
“He’s a top-line NHL winger right now,” a scout told Bob McKenzie of TSN. “He’ll walk into the NHL whenever we play next season and he’ll be a top player.”
There are now dozens of variables in play, including when exactly teams will start playing and when Phase 2 of the lottery will happen.
One other factor that cannot be discounted is the cancellation of the season altogether.
As COVID-19 case numbers rise to alltime highs nationally, the resumption of the season is far from certain. The league has not entertained that possibility yet, with the mindset being full steam ahead toward playing playoff hockey.
How the Panthers approach the coming return is not one of those variables.
“For me, the Stanley Cup playoffs is everything,” said center Aleksander Barkov on Thursday. “I would not leave my bed, just go to games and practices just to play in the playoffs and try to win the Stanley Cup.”