South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
It always come down to Florida
Remains impossible to predict whether Biden or Trump will win the state’s trove of electoral votes
An election like no other is ending up like somany others in Florida: close. So close, it’s impossible to predict whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump will win the state’s trove of electoral votes.
The presidential campaign, just like everything else in American life, has been completely up ended by the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 is the central issue for many voters, and it’s changed the way candidates campaign and voters vote.
There couldn’t be a greater contrast between the two candidates. The Biden campaign limits attendance at rallies because of the pandemic, people are required
wear masks, and there are constant reminders about social distancing. Trump continues to hold mass rallies with many unmasked attendees and no social distancing.
But even with the pandemic, the final days of the presidential campaign in Florida have been building to the same kind of climax that happens every four years: multiple visits by the candidates, including Biden and Trump stops in South Florida; volunteers fanning out for door-to-door campaigning; people waving signs and shouting on street corners and outside early voting sites, and wall-to-wall TV ads.
On Saturday, vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris held three events in the state’s biggest Democratic strongholds, Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. High Democratic turnout in South Florida is essential to the Democrats’ hopes of winning the state’s 29 electoral votes — more than a tenth of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
On Sunday, Trump plans to hold a late-night rally in Miami-Dade County, where he hopes a strong showing among Cuban-Americans voting for him can hold down the Democratic advantage in South Florida. Preventing Biden from running up a commanding advantage in South Florida is central to Trump’s goal of winning the state.
Both candidates are flooding the state with surrogates, ranging from U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey campaigning for Biden to Lara Trump appearing on behalf of her father-in-law.
“The path to the White House leads through Florida,” Harris said at her Fort Lauderdale campaign stop on Saturday.
Close race
“The thing to understand about Florida is: It’s Florida. And that means it’s going to be close,” said Charles Zelden, a professor of history and legal studies who specializes in politics and voting at Nova Southeastern University. “Either one could win Florida.”
Since Monday, 14 different pollsters have released survey results for Florida. Biden leads in 11 and Trump leads in three. The Five Thirty Eight average of Florida polls Friday evening showed Biden 2.3 points ahead of Trump, 48.8% to 46.5%.
In 2016, polls showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump. He ended up winning the state by 1.2 percentage points.
Steve Schale, who led Barack Obama’s successful
2008 and 2012 campaigns in Florida, and this year is executive director of Unite the Country, a pro-Joe Biden super PAC, said much has changed since 2016.
“There’s nothing about this election at this point
that looks anything like 2016. It’s cats and dogs compared to 2016. Republicans crushing early voting. Democrats crushing vote- by- mail,” he said. “Everything has changed this cycle. We just have to get to Election Day and see where we are.”
Republicans, whose candidate is slightly behind in the polls, are professing optimism.
Michael Barnett, chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party, pointed tothe results of mail voting and in-person early voting. Democrats established an early lead in the number of ballots cast with mail voting, but when early voting started the Republicans have narrowed the difference.
“I believe we will overcome the Democrats’ lead andwe will take Florida, and it will surprise a lot of folks,” Barnett said.
He said the Republican Party in Palm Beach County, which Trump last year declared as his home, will turn out a decisive number of votes for the president.
Democrats in Broward are trying to do the same thing for Biden. “We’ve got to max it out,” state
Rep. Bobby DuBose, a Fort Lauderdale Democrat, said at a Bid en rally on Thursday. “The weight ofthe state is on Broward.”
Advertising
Both campaigns, and outside political groups supporting, the mare spending enormous amounts of money on advertising in the state’s 10 media markets.
Advertising spending, with many of the ads slashing attacks on the other side, is approaching $300 million in the state.
The candidates and their supporters are spending so heavily through Election Day it will be impossible to escape the onslaught:
$3.1 million on Saturday,
$3.1 million on Sunday, $5.9 million on Monday and $3.2 million on Tuesday, according to the ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics.
Over the entire general election, the Wesleyan Media Project reported this week, pro-Biden ads outnumbered pro-Trump ads in Florida.
Even U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is taking to the airwaves. He’s advertising this weekend, ostensibly to support Trump. He’s also promoting himself, as he considers whether to run for re-election or for president
in 2024. Advertising Analysis found Scott is spending about
$300,000 ont head in the final five days of the campaign.
Results
Florida periodically finds its place in the national spotlight — sometimes as a laughingstock — for close elections and a seeming inability to correctly count votes. The good news is Florida is in a much better place than it’s been before and better than other states.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, far more people than usual have voted by mail or at in-person early voting locations. As of Friday morning, more the 54% of the state’ s registered voters had cast ballots. Those are being tallied with results posting just after
polls close at 7 p.m. local time.
With so many people voting before Election Day, it’s possible that people will go to bed late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning knowing who won the state. That won’t happen with several other large battleground states, where much of the processing of mail ballots can’t happen until Election Day, meaning it could take days to know the outcome.
“The good news is most, if not all of our ballots will be counted late Tuesday night ,” Zelden said. “So we’ll have a pretty good idea if a), somebody’s won, orb) if we’re too close to call.”
A Biden win in Florida, which Trump won in 2016, would be a positive sign for the Democrat’s chances in the election. A Trump win means he has hope of winning re-election. “You game out the scenarios, but Florida is kind of the traffic cop pointing which way things are going to go,” Zelden said.
An ultra, ultra tight outcome isn’t relished by anyone who remembers the 2000 George W.
Bush-Al Gore election, with the presidency ultimately decided by 537 votes— after weeks of recounts and court battles. Florida has significantly changed its election
laws since 2000, and, Zelden said, if it’s in recount territory, plenty of other states will still be counting ballots.
A Florida Atlantic University poll of likely voters
released Tuesday found 33% of Florida voters expected to know the final results on Election Night, 26% expected final results the next day, 28% within the week, and 13% more than oneweek after Election Day.
Because of the pandemic, many Democrats shifted their voting to mail- in ballots. Polls show that Democrats are more concerned than Republicans about coronavirus. Republicans, who used to dominate mail balloting, have shifted to in-person early voting.
Also making the tea leaves difficult to read, said Susan MacManus, a Florida political analyst and retired University of South Florida political scientist, is the increasing role played by independent voters.
Close races are are the
norm in Florida. Schale has added up all the votes cast for president in Florida since
1992. The total is more than
51 million votes. Fewer than
20,000 separate Republicans and Democrats.
High interest
Voters consider the election a big deal. An Oct. 20 University of South Florida poll found that compared to recent elections, 89% of Floridians think the 2020 election is “very important.” Just 9% said it was somewhat important and 2% said it wasn’t important.
Richard DeNapoli, the Republican state committeeman in Broward and former county party chairman, said he’s sensing enormous public interest in the election.
“I think we’re definitely going to see a historic turnout statewide,” he said. “I think all the parties are going to go up. The goals for each side is for yours to outmatch the other one.”