Sunday night’s ceremony may see historic wins

Here are some predictions, ahead of Sunday’s 93rd Academy Awards.

Best Picture

Nominees: “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank,” “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”

Coyle: A contemplative character study made for $5 million and populated by nonprofessional actors, Chloe Zhao’s “Nomadland” is not your typical Oscar heavyweight. And yet it’s overwhelming the favorite, a roundly acclaimed movie from an exciting auteur that has already ruled at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and, most crucially, the producers and directors’ guilds. The weirdness of this unending pandemic awards season adds a drop of uncertainty to everything. But as much as I’d like to see “Sound of Metal,” “Promising Young Woman” or “Minari” sneak in for an upset, “Nomadland” is a near-lock, and an eminently worthy winner.

Best Actress

Nominees: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”; Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”; Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”; Vanessa

Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”; Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.”

Bahr: The best actress race is perhaps the biggest wild card of the night. Viola Davis won the SAG, Andra Day won the Golden Globe and Frances McDormand won the BAFTA. Day still seems like a long shot and McDormand’s last win still seems fresh enough that it might push voters elsewhere. I’m inclined to believe that Davis will walk away with the trophy for her raw portrayal of blues singer Ma Rainey, but I can’t help but think that perhaps Carey Mulligan should win.

Best Actor

Nominees: Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”; Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”; Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”; Gary Oldman, “Mank”; Steven Yeun, “Minari.”

Coyle: This award has — rightly — belonged to Chadwick Boseman throughout an award season that has doubled as tribute and wake for the late “Ma Rainey” actor. His greatest performance was his last. Some see a chance of Anthony Hopkins (who won at the BAFTAs) pulling off an upset for his devastating portrait of a man stricken with dementia. But I don’t. Expect Boseman to become the third actor to win an Oscar posthumously, following Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”) and Peter Finch (“Network”).

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”; Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”; Olivia Colman, “The Father”; Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”; Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari.”

Bahr: In a category where Amanda Seyfried started out seeming like a lock, it certainly seems like the tide has shifted toward Yuh-Jung Youn for her performance as the unconventional grandmother Soonja in “Minari.” It’s a difficult task to be both the comic relief and the heart of a film, but she pulls it off effortlessly, which is why she probably will and should win (although Maria Bakalova could sweep in with an upset).

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”; Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”; Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”; Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah.”

Coyle: This seems certain to go to Daniel Kaluuya. For his mighty performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton, Kaluuya has racked up wins at the SAGs, Globes and BAFTAs. A little wrinkle came when Lakeith Stanfield was unexpectedly nominated here despite being campaigned for as a leading actor — and that could split some of the vote between the two “Judas and the Black Messiah” stars. Stanfield, for me, is the best actor in this bunch. But this is Kaluuya’s year.

Director

Nominees: Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”; Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”; David Fincher, “Mank”; Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”; Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round.”

Bahr: The directing category is Chloe Zhao’s to lose, and I think she both will win and should win for the transcendent “Nomadland.” In an awards season as endless as this one, it’s hard not to be skeptical of any film and filmmaker that has thus far swept most awards. But that this tiny movie has had such an ascent is something of a miracle and well-deserved.

Documentary

Nominees: “Collective,” “Crip Camp,” “The Mole Agent,” “My Octopus Teacher,” “Time”

Coyle: Probably the only one that I wouldn’t pick — “My Octopus Teacher” — is going to win. Little noticed at its debut last fall, the film’s audience swelled on Netflix, turning it into an out-of-the-blue contender. I would cheer loudest, though, if “Crip Camp” were to win. It would be a triumph for a warmhearted film, and for the disability community.

International Feature

Nominees: “Quo Vadis, Aida?” Bosnia and Herzegovina; “Another Round,” Denmark; “Better Days,” Hong Kong; “Collective,” Romania; “The Man Who Sold His Skin,” Tunisia.

Bahr: This category seems to be a race between Denmark’s “Another Round” and Romania’s “Collective,” both of which were nominated in other prominent categories (director and documentary, respectively). I think this one will veer toward “Another Round” simply because its directing nod gave it a brighter spotlight and a bigger audience and voters have a chance to honor “Collective” in another category.

Animated Feature

Nominees: “Onward,” “Over the Moon,” “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon,” “Soul,” “Wolfwalkers.”

Coyle: Pixar, like always, seems to have this in the bag. The studio’s “Soul” is the clear favorite. There’s so much that’s wondrous in Pete Docter’s film that its Oscar victory is hardly something to lament. But you couldn’t find a better underdog than the Irish animation studio Cartoon Saloon. Tomm Moore and Ross Stewart’s “Wolfwalkers” is impossibly stunning. It’s the studio’s fifth Oscar nomination, and it’s time the animators won one.