South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Heat more than disinterested bystanders to NBA draft lottery
The Miami Heat spent the season wanting nothing to do with the NBA draft lottery, with their unprotected 2021 first-round pick held by the Oklahoma City Thunder. That selection now stands at No. 18.
But that doesn’t mean the Heat still won’t have eyes on the lottery balls when the NBA conducts its annual drawing 8:30 p.m. Tuesday in Chicago.
After finishing No. 6 in the East, the Heat stand in somewhat of a precarious place, having to have eyes as much on those behind as those ahead.
On one hand, this is setting up as one of the deepest and most-talented drafts in years. On the other, it’s not as if any of this season’s Eastern Conference contenders are positioned for greater instant riches based on the lottery outcome.
For the first time in years, it no longer is a case of what else the Atlanta Hawks will be adding, having arrived as playoff contenders this season.
Still, the bouncing balls could make a difference when it comes to where the Heat will size up in the East going into next season.
The order going into the random-butweighted drawing, in terms of lottery odds, stands with a first six of the Houston Rockets, followed by the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Western Conference’s Rockets, Thunder and Timberwolves stand of little concern to the Heat. And among the East teams with the best odds of a top-four selection (the only picks determined by the lottery), the Pistons were stuck in neutral this season even with All-Rookie selections Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart, the Magic continue to take the long view after trading Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, and the Cavaliers are more than one piece away from anything tangible.
But then it gets interesting, Heat-impact interesting.
Seventh in the lottery odds, with a 7.5 percent chance of the No. 1 pick and a 31.9 percent chance of a top-four pick, are the Toronto Raptors. A stroke of good fortune well could change the Raptors’ outlook when it comes to the free agency of potential Heat target Kyle Lowry. A top-four pick could become an instant trade chip to augment the core of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, and, perhaps, a returning Lowry. It is a core (minus Kawhi Leonard, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka) that is just two seasons removed from a championship.
Then there are the Chicago Bulls, the lottery’s eighth seed, whose pick goes to the Magic, to complete the Vucevic trade, if it is not among the first four. The Bulls have a 20.3 percent chance of a top-four pick. Add a player of that pedigree to Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Coby White, Patrick Williams and, perhaps, Lauri Markkanen, and Billy Donovan’s team might yet make the rise that had been expected this season.
The two remaining East teams among the 14 in the lottery are the Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers, who both offered enough to advance to this season’s play-in round.
The Hornets are seeded No. 11, with an 8.5 percent chance to come out with one of the first four selections, a stroke of good fortune that ostensibly could make Charlotte again a playoff contender, when added to LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington.
As for the Pacers, the No. 13 lottery seed, there is a 4.8 percent chance of a top-four selection, which seemingly would be more than enough to elevate the mix of Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren (or their replacements) back into the heart of playoff contention.
So, no, Pat Riley and his front office won’t see the Heat logo at any point during Tuesday’s lottery.
But they will see plenty about how next season’s challenge might shape up, and whether the Raptors, Bulls, Hornets or Pacers bounce ahead in the East playoff race.