South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
US: Russia’s war lacks battlefield commander
Void could explain why Putin’s war effort is failing
WASHINGTON — Russia is running its military campaign against Ukraine out of Moscow, with no central war commander on the ground to call the shots, according to U.S. officials who have studied the war that started Feb. 24.
That centralized approach may go a long way to explain why the Russian war effort has struggled in the face of stiffer-thanexpected Ukrainian resistance, the officials said.
The lack of a unifying military leader in Ukraine has meant that Russian air, ground and sea units are not in sync. Their disjointed battlefield campaigns have been plagued by poor logistics, flagging morale and between 7,000 and 15,000 military deaths, senior U.S. officials and independent analysts say.
It has also contributed to the deaths of at least seven Russian generals as high-ranking officers are pushed to the front lines to untangle tactical problems that Western militaries would leave to more junior officers or senior enlisted personnel.
A senior U.S. official said that NATO officials and the intelligence community had spent weeks waiting for a Russian war commander to emerge. No one has, leaving Western officials to conclude that the men making decisions are far from the fight, back in Moscow: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu; Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian military; and even President Vladimir Putin.
Last Wednesday, Biden administration officials, citing declassified U.S. intelligence, said Putin had been
misinformed by his advisers about the Russian military’s problems in Ukraine. The intelligence, U.S. officials said, also showed what appeared to be growing tension between Putin and Shoigu, who was once among the most trusted members of the Kremlin’s inner circle.
Russian officials have disputed the U.S. intelligence assertion, calling it a “complete misunderstanding” of the situation.
But it is hard to run a military campaign from 500 miles away, U.S. military officials said. The distance alone, they said, can lead to a disconnect between the troops who are doing the fighting and the war plans being drawn up in Moscow. Instead of streamlining the process, they said, Russia has created a military machine that is unable to adapt to a quick and nimble Ukrainian resistance.
A second senior U.S.
official said that Russian soldiers, who have been taught not to make a single move without explicit instructions from superiors, had been left frustrated on the battlefield, while Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov continued to plot increasingly out-of-touch strategy.
This approach means that Moscow transmits instructions to generals in the field, who then transmit them to troops, who are told to follow those instructions no matter the situation on the ground.
“It shows up in the mistakes that are being made,” said retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who served as NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe during the Kosovo war.
Last month, Ukrainian forces blew up the Russian warship Orsk, which had docked in southern Ukraine. Describing the incident, Clark asked: “Who would be crazy enough to dock a ship
in a port” before first securing the area?
That the Russian planners who sent the Orsk into the port were inattentive to the potential danger shows that no one is questioning decisions coming from the top, officials said. The troops at the bottom are not empowered to point out flaws in strategy that should be obvious, they said.
Military analysts said a complex chain of events, originating with a brokendown command structure that begins in Moscow, had led to the deaths of the Russian generals.
“I do not see the kind of coherent organizational architecture that one would have expected given the months of exercises and presumably even longer period of planning in advance of the invasion,” retired Gen. David Petraeus, who served as the head of the military’s Central Command and as the top commander in Iraq and Afghanistan, said in an email.
In a U.S. war command structure, a four-star field commander would coordinate and synchronize all subordinate air, land and naval forces, as well as special operations and cyberoperations. The campaign would have a main objective, a center of gravity, with operations supporting that goal.
In the case of the deaths of some of the Russian generals, for instance, the problem originated far away from the battlefield, when Moscow did not respond quickly enough after Ukraine jammed Russian communications, the analysts said.
Putin’s dishonest portrayal of the mission of the Russian military may have hurt its ability to prosecute the effort, which the Russian president initially presented publicly as a limited military operation.
Clark recalled teaching a class of Ukrainian generals in 2016 in Kyiv and trying to explain what an American military “after-action review” was. He told them that after a battle involving U.S. troops, “everybody got together and broke down what happened.”
“The colonel has to confess his mistakes in front of the captain,” Clark said. “He says, ‘Maybe I took too long to give an order.’ ”
After hearing him out, the Ukrainians, Clark said, told him that could not work. “They said, ‘We’ve been taught in the Soviet system that information has to be guarded and we lie to each other,’ ” he recalled.
Putin’s decision to send Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov to the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol for a victory lap despite the fact that Mariupol has not fallen demonstrates the Russian president’s continued belief that the biggest battle is the information one, said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security services expert.
The feared Chechen “is a general, not a real military commander,” he said, adding, “This shows that what Putin still believes is that propaganda is the most important thing here.”
Russian officials are signaling that Putin might be lowering his war ambitions and focusing on the eastern Donbas region, although military analysts said it remained to be seen whether that would constitute a meaningful shift or a maneuver to distract attention before another offensive.
The Russian army has already committed more than half of its total combat forces to the fight, including its most elite units. Moscow is now tapping reinforcements from outside Russia, including Georgia, as well as rushing mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a private military company, to eastern Ukraine.