South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Upcoming season is decidedly different
Heat schedule has all-or-nothing aspect regarding star appeal
No sooner does the NBA schedule drop, as it did Wednesday, then so do the accompanying strength-of-schedule analytics.
While this is not like the NFL, where you don’t play most of the teams, the NBA schedule still has ample twists and turns (back-toback sets, conference teams faced only three times, miles traveled), to add some legitimacy to those ratings.
Based on the methodology of Positive Residual (which factors in opponent strength, rest and altitude), the Heat’s schedule comes out ranked 12th in toughness out of the NBA’s 30 teams.
When it comes to perceived “scheduled wins,” a rested team facing an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back, the Heat’s schedule sets up as particularly difficult, fifth-toughest in the league.
As for basic strength of schedule (somewhat of a flawed approach, since it is based on last season’s records at this stage), Tankathon ranks the Heat with the league’s third-easiest schedule (this is further flawed at this stage, because good teams don’t have to play themselves).
And when it comes to the projections from analyst Ed
Kupfer, who utilizes Vegas win-projection totals, the Heat have the league’s sixth-easiest schedule.
All of that merely is the game before the game, filling the August doldrums.
Instead, what should matter most to teams is, shall we say, strength of commitment.
Namely, the commitment of the league’s stars to play an overwhelming majority of their team’s games.
To that end, the NBA schedule release featured these factoids:
The estimated average miles traveled for the 2022-23 regular season has been reduced to 41,000 miles per team, a record low in the era with 30 teams and 82 games per team. This marks an estimated reduction of nearly 2,000 miles per team from last season’s previous all-time low of 43,000 miles traveled. In total, NBA teams are projected to travel more than 50,000 fewer miles than last season. The instances with no travel between games for teams on the road have increased by 66% from last season (88 from 53). The 88 no-travel instances include 55 instances of teams playing consecutive road games against the same opponent and 33 instances of teams playing two games in a row in Los
Angeles (against the Clippers and Lakers) or New York (against the Knicks and Nets).
All of which brings us to perhaps the most unique aspect of the Heat schedule, particularly the home schedule at FTX Arena.
In all, 12 of the Heat’s 41 home games, more than a quarter of the home schedule, are sets of consecutive games against the same opponent: the Toronto Raptors on Oct. 22 and Oct. 24; the Charlotte Hornets on Nov. 10 and Nov. 12; the Washington Wizards on Nov. 23 and Nov. 25; the Milwaukee Bucks on Jan. 12 and Jan. 24; the Atlanta Hawks on March 4 and March 6; and the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 8 and March 10.
Yes, it reduces travel.
And, yes, it is similar to the approach the league took during the 2020-21 pandemic season.
The difference is that season there was little to no attendance amid COVID.
But this season is different, and that matters.
Now, if an opposing player is ailing when one of those teams makes its first appearance of the season, it is likely he also will be out 48 hours later, in what would be his team’s only other visit of the season.
Yes, when it comes to Western Conference opponents, there never has been fan recourse, with those teams only visiting once.
But, now, with the Heat’s 2022-23 scheduling, a sore ankle for Bradley Beal could mean no Miami appearance this season by the Wizards guard. Same thing if, say, Trae Young were to have a balky knee during the Hawks’ lone visit, or Giannis Antetokounmpo a tender elbow when the Bucks are in town their lone time.
With baseball-type scheduling in baseball, there almost always is another visit within the same league over the course of the 162-game schedule.
In the NBA, even with an 82-game schedule, it could be all or nothing for several NBA stars this season at FTX.
Which brings us back to the league’s reasoning behind the approach, that it will get players on the court more often, reducing load management by reducing the travel load.
If that is the case, then there ultimately will be something to be said for the approach.
Otherwise, nagging injuries could be a nagging concern for season-ticket holders bent on at least one glimpse of some of the NBA’s leading men.