And the Oscar goes to…
All 4 acting categories on verge of being won by actors of color.
Hollywood will honor the best films of 2020 and early 2021 at the 93rd annual Academy Awards on Sunday, April 25.
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, streaming services enticed most moviegoers from the comfort of home, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t cause for celebration among the nominees. Although there were glaring omissions (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night in Miami” snubbed for best picture), the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences openly embraced diversity and representation in multiple categories, a welcome sign of progress in its ongoing quest for better inclusivity. In fact, all four acting categories are on the verge of being won by actors of color for the first time.
In a break from tradition primarily due to COVID protocols, much of this year’s festivities will be held at Union Station in Los Angeles, the spacious art deco location where “The Dark Knight Rises” and “Blade Runner” were filmed among others. Co-producer Steven Soderbergh, the Oscar-winning director of “Traffic,” reportedly promises to spice things up by including personal stories from nominees throughout the ceremony, which will have “the aesthetic of a film as opposed to a TV show.” We’ll see how that goes.
In the meanwhile, expect the unexpected. Bearing that in mind, here are my predictions in the top six categories.
BEST PICTURE
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah” “Nomadland”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman” “Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Will Win: “Nomadland”
Could Win: “Minari” or “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
The entire awards season has been dominated by “Nomadland,” a somber yet poignant meditation on loss, isolation and introspection. But feel-good family drama “Minari” (my personal favorite) or thought-provoking “Chicago 7” could have last-minute momentum, bringing suspense to the final envelope of the night.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank” Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland” Will Win: Zhao
Could Win: Fincher Fincher’s black and white Tinseltown throwback, leading all films with 10 nominations, is an elegant masterwork. However, Zhao, illuminating an intimate finesse at crafting striking conversational moments across a wide expanse, is still on the fast track to become the first woman of color to win this category.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s
Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari” Will Win: Boseman
Could Win: Hopkins Hopkins expertly navigated the difficult journey of dementia, but the late Boseman’s revelatory, thrilling and touching work as an arrogant, disillusioned musician longing for greater heartbreakingly soared to the heavens.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances Mcdormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Will Win: Davis
Could Win: Mulligan
This powerhouse category is the biggest nail-biter. Davis captured the Screen Actors Guild Award, Day won the Golden Globe, twotime Oscar champ Mcdormand won the BAFTA (British Oscars), Mulligan was the Critics’ Choice, and Kirby is a viable dark horse. In such an extremely tough, hotly contested race, Mulligan benefits
from starring in a topical best picture contender bolstered by the notion some may feel her time to win an Oscar has finally come. Still, I give the edge to the dynamic Davis, whose attitude, grit and ferocity as the “Mother of the Blues” importantly struck a chord with SAG, suggesting her fellow actors within the Academy may have rallied behind her as well in the crucial homestretch.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah” Will Win: Kaluuya Could Win: Stanfield The Academy loved “Judas” so much they purposefully moved leading man Stanfield out of the overcrowded best actor field to be acknowledged here instead. I’m sure he appreciates the gesture, but I don’t suspect vote-splitting to sidetrack Kaluuya’s intense portrayal of Black Panther Party icon Fred Hampton.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Coleman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Yuh-jung Youn, “Minari” Will Win: Youn
Could Win: Bakalova or Close
Bakalova, a Bulgarian newcomer, turned heads in an impressive breakthrough comedic performance as Borat’s kooky daughter who memorably tempts an unsuspecting Rudy Giuliani. But there’s fiercer competition from the battle of the grandmas: eight-time (!) nominee Close as feisty, fiery Mamaw (a.k.a. Bonnie Vance, the grandmother of Middletown native and author J.D. Vance) and first-time nominee Youn as
Soon-ja, the earthy, unconventional, fish-out-of-water matriarch lovingly assisting her close-knit clan in rural Arkansas. Considering the fact that comedy rarely triumphs at the Oscars and “Hillbilly Elegy” divided critics and audiences alike, Youn, who recently won the SAG and BAFTA precursors, has the edge for her marvelously heartwarming performance.
The 93rd annual Academy Awards will be held Sunday, April 25 at Union Station Los Angeles and the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center in Hollywood, and international locations via satellite. “Oscars: Into the Spotlight,” a pre-show event in which all five nominated original songs will be performed in their entirety, will air live on ABC at 6:30 p.m. The Oscars will be televised live on ABC at 8 p.m. “Oscars: After Dark,” a recap of the ceremony, will immediately follow the Oscars show.