The futures of wagering
State looks to New Jersey to predict sports-betting success
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — Ten minutes before the tipoff, Michael Brandon walked up to a row of FanDuel bookmakers to lay $60 on Gonzaga covering the five-point spread against Texas Tech in an NCAA tournament Elite 8 college basketball showdown.
Then, the lanky 28-yearold made a second bet — an impulsive $20 on the overunder.
In the blue-green gleam of 15-foot screens, Brandon was a head above the crush of men elbowing at the bar and reclining in the VIP lounge on a Saturday night at New Jersey’s sportsbook at the Meadowlands.
Many in the room were regulars who come to the sportsbook several times a week to risk thousands for the thrill of a big payout. The rest were more casual wagerers — placing $10 bets on the mobile app or visiting the sportsbooks in person for a March Madness trip.
The men wagered and swigged beer with their eyes glued on the on-screen action. But while the televised athletes performed, the clock was ticking on another game: a bet by New Jersey that the millions in revenue from legalized sports betting outweigh the ills of problem gambling.
Connecticut is on the precipice of making the same wager. While other states moved quickly to legalize following the May go-ahead from the U.S. Supreme Court, Connecticut’s bill — a cousin of the New Jersey model — is inching its way through the Legislature.
Connecticut’s caution brought Brandon to the Meadowlands, where the Stamford man could bet legally. He grabbed the white betting slip from the bookie at the counter. It was game time.
‘The mindset of chance’
In a faded Georgetown Hoyas tee, Brandon ordered chicken and waffles and settled in to watch the TV — one of 45 in the room — at the end of his table.
Brandon was raised an avid college basketball fan in Ridgefield thanks to his father, a Georgetown University graduate. His father introduced Brandon to gambling by way of poker.
“People that want to sports bet are finding the means to do so already based on the ability to do it online. All (Connecticut is) doing is forgoing potential tax revenue and being able to actually benefit their residents.”
Michael Brandon, sports gambler
“Growing up, my dad would teach me poker and teach me the basic rules of some of these other games,” Brandon said. “I have enough of the mindset of chance and thinking about ‘Oh I can double my money.’ That’s appealing to me. That’s entertaining to me. The risk of losing that money doesn’t alarm me as much.”
That mindset has translated to multiple yearly visits to casinos and — his favorite — sports betting.
This year, he had three brackets across six March Madness pools, some of which he has participated in for years. He bets on the NFL, Major League Baseball, Premier League soccer and college basketball games using an online sportsbook overseas.
A Nielsen Holdings analyst, he has a quick mind for probability and game theory. But he doesn’t expect to win his bets. Instead, he keeps a few hundred dollars in a separate sports betting account, which he counts as part of his entertainment budget.
“My primary objective with betting is for my entertainment,” Brandon said. “It is not to win money. That is a great side dynamic if that happens, but I am not expecting to.”
A weekend visit to the Borgata Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City in 2018 was Brandon’s first foray in retail sports wagering. The Meadowlands sojourn was his second. He’s eager for Connecticut to legalize sports wagering so he can skip the trip.
“People that want to sports bet are finding the means to do so already based on the ability to do it online,” he said. “All (Connecticut is) doing is forgoing potential tax revenue and being able to actually benefit their residents.”
Compulsive gambling
At the table next to Brandon sat 43-year-old Zack Frye, who lives 15 minutes from the Meadowlands and sports wagers there every day. By 7 p.m. Saturday, he had placed $2,000 in bets and he would bet more money later.
But he does not think Connecticut should legalize sports wagering.
“I think they should use New Jersey as a guinea pig and see where we are at in five years,” said Frye, sharing a bucket of Bud Lights with two friends. “I think it is going to be a lot more people hurt and suffering.”
A University of Connecticut graduate with a Harvard MBA, Frye has been betting for 20 years on sports. He considers himself a “professional.” He knows when to dip in and dip out, he said, but he still rides the manic cycle of wins and losses.
“It takes a toll,” he said. “There’s no gambling counseling besides 1-800Gambler, and who really picks up the phone and goes for that type of help?”
In fact, 5,789 calls were made to New Jersey’s 1800-Gambler hotline in 2018, said Neva Pryor, executive director of the state’s Council on Compulsive Gambling. The hotline has seen about a 20 percent increase in calls since sports gambling was legalized in New Jersey last June, she said.
Sitting alone at a table in the Meadowlands sportsbook, 27-year-old Buniod, who would not give his last name, said he was “addicted” to sports gambling. Sporting a tweed jacket, cropped dark jeans and black loafers, the Russian transplant sipped an espresso and watched the last minutes of the Sacramento Kings game, while debating whether to place another bet.
Buniod takes a cab from New York City three days a week to the Meadowlands. When he started, he won $6,000 or $7,000 a night, but quickly he started losing more. He’s now trying to bet himself out of the negative.
Does he want to stop? “That’s a difficult question,” he said. “I want to stop losing, yes. I want to start winning more. I like the process. They say if you love the process, it might work out.”
Mobile is where the money is
Sprinkled among the regulars were patrons making their first and second trips to the Meadowlands. These men — and almost all of the patrons appeared male — used New Jersey’s mobile apps to place most of their bets.
Eric and Jean, two New Jersey financiers who declined to provide their last names, said most of their friends dabble in sports betting. They each had a few twenties on the March Madness games, but nothing more. And they agreed Connecticut should legalize the practice.
“It’s a win-win,” Jean said. “Rather than shipping (the revenue) overseas, you keep it in the U.S.”
A 48-year-old retired man from New Jersey said he liked mobile sports betting because of the variety of wagers you can place. New Jersey was the only state to allow betting on the Oscars in 2019. Intrigued, the retiree, who declined to provide his name, wagered $5 on “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
“I think the mobile sports betting experience is better here than in Nevada,” he said.
Mobile sports betting accounted for about twothirds of the revenue made by New Jersey sportsbooks in the nine months since legalization.
FanDuel, which partners with Meadowlands, and DraftKings produced the most revenue, according to the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement. On FanDuel’s mobile app, 25 percent of bettors are New York residents and 2 percent live in Connecticut, said Mike Raffensperger, chief marketing officer for FanDuel, which has sports betting and fantasy sports operations.
New Jersey set an 8.5 percent tax rate on in-person sports betting and 13 percent tax on mobile.
In total, sports wagering brought $14.4 million in taxes to New Jersey from June to February, the last month for which data is available. But even if the state meets its projection of $25 million in sports betting tax revenue for a full year, that would total less than one 10th of 1 percent of the state's $37.4 billion budget, the Associated Press reports.
‘Conversations are continuing’
Under New Jersey’s legislation, the state’s three racetracks (and sites of former racetracks) and Atlantic City’s nine casinos were permitted to offer wagering. These operators are allowed to form up to three partnerships to offer online sports betting.
At present there are 10 casinos and racetracks where people can sports wager in person in New Jersey.
Connecticut, one of about 20 states considering legalization, is eyeing a similar licensing model. A legislative committee approved a bill that would allow the state’s tribes to offer sports wagering to adults over 21 on their lands — including at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun casinos — and through an online platform. The bill would also allow the Connecticut Lottery to conduct sports betting at four brickand-mortar locations and online. Finally, it would permit sports wagering at licensed off-track betting locations, and other companies could submit proposals to the state to obtain one of three additional licenses to run online sports betting.
The bill would set a 10 percent tax on sports wagering gross revenue. It awaits approval by the state House and Senate.
The issue of sports betting is entangled with other proposals to expand gambling in the state and a revenue-sharing agreement between the state and the tribes that dates to the 1990s. The governor’s office has been negotiating with the tribes on gambling issues.
“I’m trying to find a global solution going forward that honors our commitment to the tribes and makes sure we do this in a thoughtful way for the next 20 years,” Gov. Ned Lamont said. “All I can tell you is the conversations are continuing.”
In an interview last week, FanDuel applauded Connecticut’s step toward New Jersey-style sports betting.
“We think it is a great model for other states,” said Raffensperger of FanDuel. “It is a sustainable tax rate that incentivizes investment through advertising. … Most notably and by far the biggest (reason) is mobile accessibility. I know some states are considering a retail-only operation. That would create a fractional opportunity.”
FanDuel, which is also a sports betting operator in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, would “enthusiastically look to enter” a legalized Connecticut sports betting market, Raffensperger said.
DraftKings, which partners with New Jersey’s Resorts Casino, would bid for a license, said James Chisholm, a DraftKings spokesman.
For now, Connecticut sports bettors like Brandon are not waiting.
In the second half, Brandon doubled down on Gonzaga with another $25 bet. But a Texas Tech upset left the Bulldogs on their backs.
Brandon cashed out, leaving $65 at the Meadowlands. But walking in the cool night air, he said he’d go back — if he must.