Some questions beyond ‘Will they sign Cole?’
NEW YORK — Thanks to back to back 100 win teams, a stillyoung core of position player talent, and division rivals intent on getting worse, the Yankees have blessedly few questions about the state of their roster heading into the Winter Meetings.
But if we’re being honest, there’s one we really care about, the fate of a certain late 20s righthanded pitcher. That’s right: Will Jonathan Holder bounce back into the effective middle relief form he showed in 20172018 or will he continue to work out his kinks from TripleA?
OK, but for real.
Cole in your stocking?: It sure seems serious this time! Though the Yankees have largely sat out the top tier of the market, the team has signaled a willingness to make Gerrit Cole the exception to their usual disciplined approach to freeagent pursuits. Or perhaps, their discipline led them to Cole, and not Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Nats stars Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin.
Cole, 29, is looking to set the market for freeagent pitchers, as he should, considering he’s the best combo of age, talent and performance since Scherzer. He’s 3510 with a 2.68 ERA since getting revitalized by the Astros, and led the American League in ERA and the majors in strikeouts. If there’s an exception to be made, it’s for him.
What does a bigtime pitching move mean for the rest of the roster?: Hal Steinbrenner is on the record, as always, of trying to limbo under the upper bound of the luxury tax.
So, what does, say, a $38 million annual line item for Cole (or slightly less for secondary target Stephen Strasburg) do elsewhere? If they’re serious about both Cole and austerity, are there other players on the trade block to make sure New York plays by the handicap, even if it’s selfimposed?
At backup catcher, they go with veteran Austin Romine, who has the respect of the pitching staff and quietly hit at near leagueaverage rates, with 18 home runs and 77 RBI since the 2018 season — or save a couple of million with Kyle Higashioka, a talented framer but unproven hitter?
Will the Yankees bet on a Dellin Betances recovery, or try and dumpster dive for the next breakout reliever? Maybe there’s a cheaper reclamation project they think can pitch as well as the fourtime AllStar, or hope younger pitchers like Jonathan Loaisiga (who made the playoff roster) and Chance Adams (who didn’t, but has elite spin on both his fastball and curve) can soak up his usual workload.
Happy Ending or Happless?: One of the obvious ways for the Steinbrenners to save money would be dealing J.A. Happ. Happ may have negative value, but the Yankees are believed to be shopping him around. He’s also the exact kind of guy that would get killed by a turbo ball, which means there’s squintyoureyes optimism that he might be the effective starter the Yankees acquired from Toronto from to stabilize their rotation in 2018.
But, we don’t know what ball we’re gonna get. MLB might not even know. So it’s hard to know how valuable Happ will be.
Then there’s the builtin volatility in his contract. If he starts 27 games or pitches 165 innings (no matter the quality) his option for the 2021 season, when he’ll be 38, automatically exercises. Any late 30s pitcher is risky, particularly one that might be on a sharp decline.
We know the Yankees will have to probably pay some salary and include a prospect if they indeed decide to move on, but the quality of prospect or amount of dollars kicked in is up for debate, and you know any interested GM will be quick to debate it. What is the Yankees’ center field plan?: Aaron Hicks’ myriad injury struggles could have easily sunk lesser teams, but Brett Gardner ably filled his role and then some. He’s a free agent again, and early indications are both sides want a reunion. With Hicks’ Tommy John recovery pushing his timetable into the summer, the importance of the fourth outfielder is extra important.
Gardner means a little more to the Yankees than just being good at baseball. As the longesttenured Yankee and last remaining link to their 2009 championship team, Gardner is a leader. You see it every time a Yankee batter reaches base and starts banging an invisible bat, but there’s the hustle and work ethic too. With a careerhigh 28 homers last year, he’s aged into power, or at least become a savvy manipulator of the short right porch and turbo ball.
However, that turbo ball is no guarantee to stick around. Remember the postseason, and Gardner, who doesn’t exactly light up the exit velocity charts (22nd percentile in 2019), could find those fly balls dying near the warning track if the league balls gets back to normal.
Plus, with the enormous caveat of small sample size Gardner did post his first negative Defensive Runs Saved total in center. The slight merits a deeper dive: He’s still as fleetfooted as ever, but centerfield is a young man’s game for a reason.
The Bombers will surely want more than leadership, bat bangs, and good vibes out of center field. Fortunately, whoever is starting in center on March 26 at Camden Yards Gardner, breakout outfielder Mike Tauchman, the guy that delivered this paper to your front door, you, literally anyone could probably represent the Orioles in next year’s AllStar team.
The expected rosters around the AL East affords the Yankees some freedom to take their time figuring out who they want manning center field.
Pick a ball and stick to it: How good is that launch angle star, really? And how bad is that fly ball pitcher? So many player evaluation questions hinge on the equipment they play with next year. It adds yet another wrinkle to how we measure player talent and success.
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