The myths of vote-by-mail
For some Republicans, perhaps the most worrisome myth is that vote-bymail leads to fraud. While there are cases of fraud, the establishment of strong security systems has won the day. The states that have had universal vote-by-mail for years know how to prepare for it.
Colorado has had only two documented instances of voter fraud since implementing vote-by-mail in 2014 (one was a husband forging his wife’s signature). According to one study, it’s more likely that a voter will be struck by lightning than commit fraud using a mail-in ballot.
To see results as reliable as Colorado’s, states will need more vote-by-mail infrastructure by November. The recent primary in Wisconsin is an example of what will happen if states wait until it’s too late. The state is one of 27 that already permit anyone to request an absentee ballot. When COVID-19 hit, election officials were inundated with requests and couldn’t get ballots to voters quickly enough. Thousands received their ballots after Election Day.
If states don’t prepare now for a massive influx of absentee ballot requests, an untold number will have to risk their health and the health of those around them if they want to vote in November. Given the warnings from Drs. Robert Redfield and Anthony Fauci of a COVID-19 resurgence near election time, states would be negligent not to prepare for the possibility that this election will be held differently than previous ones.
A final myth worth dispelling for wary Republicans is that vote-by-mail
To say vote-by-mail gives any party an advantage is suspect, but to make such a claim for the COVID-19 election this November is pure bluster.
is a plot for Democrats to win the election. Simply, there is no way to tell who vote-by-mail will benefit this November.
Intuition offers little guidance. Republican political operatives have relied on absentee ballot drives to combat Democratic get-out-the-vote operations for years, but some now wonder if increasing turnout overall will hurt the GOP. While studies suggest general increases in voter turnout benefit Democrats, the circumstances of this election are unique. COVID-19 is most dangerous to older Americans, and one would expect them to be much more likely to vote with expanded vote-by-mail as opposed to braving the dangers of voting in person. In 2016, Trump won voters 65 and older by seven points and voters 45-64 by eight points.
Past experience is divided as well, with vote-by-mail having different impacts depending on the locality. For example, while Republicans nationally seem to oppose vote-by-mail, local Republicans in Florida have sought to expand it for years because of Florida’s large population of older Americans. When Colorado adopted universal vote-by-mail, Republicans gained a slight advantage. A Stanford University study of new vote-by-mail laws in California and Utah found no discernable impact on turnout based on political party. To say vote-by-mail gives any party an advantage is suspect, but to make such a claim for the COVID-19 election this November is pure bluster.
None of this is to shame the American tradition of voting in person. As the world’s oldest sustained democracy, the United States rightfully feels it needs to lead the way in holding free and fair elections. There are good arguments for having most people vote in person on Election Day in most places for most elections. But the most important thing is that people vote.
Even before this was a once-in-acentury crisis, less than 60 percent of qualified voters voted in presidential elections: Only 58.2 percent voted in 2008, 54.9 percent in 2012 and 55.7 percent in 2016. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, holding a secure election could increase the number of eligible voters casting ballots while also affording voters the option to vote while still social distancing.
As the Supreme Court ruled during the Wisconsin election, there are no second chances. Wisconsin didn’t have time to prepare for a COVID-19 election in March. But we all have the time to prepare for one in November. This time, there is no excuse.