Mayor on virus data: ‘We’ve saved lives because of it’

David Martin breaks down the spread of COVID in the city

STAMFORD – Dr. Robert Redfield, chief of the Centers for Disease Control, this week warned that the winter might be “the most difficult time in the public-health history of this nation.”

Unless Americans take more precautions, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 could hit 450,000 by February, Redfield said. That would be two-thirds of way toward the 675,000 U.S. deaths reported in the 1918 influenza pandemic, the most severe in recent history .

To prepare for what may be coming, Stamford Mayor David Martin is employing a long-trusted tool.

Data.

Each week Martin helps prepare a presentation that illustrates, down to the neighborhood, where COVID-19 is active in Stamford. The Dec. 1 presentation, for example, shows that every neighborhood is coded red, meaning they have 15 or more new COVID-19 cases per day for each 100,000 in population.

The rate of new cases per day in North Stamford is 22.9; in Westover it’s 28.4. They are among the city’s least dense neighborhoods and the only ones with rates in the 20s.

In the southern part of the city, where neighborhoods are more congested, the rates are nearly triple that.

Waterside is highest, with 64.1, followed by the Cove, 63.8. Next comes the West Side, 59.1, and the East Side, 58.3.

Glenbrook and Belltown, grouped together, came in with a rate of 52.1.

The four neighborhoods that run up the middle of the city from north to south all had rates in the 40s: Turn of River and Newfield together, 48.1; the South End, 45.3; neighboring Downtown, 43; and the Bull’s Head area adjacent to downtown, 41.4.

The southernmost neighborhood, Shippan, which juts into Long Island Sound, had a rate of 39.5, nearly the same as Springdale, 39.4, in the geographical center of Stamford.

House by house

Martin said he has even more detailed data that, for privacy reasons, he cannot share. That information identifies COVID-19 cases

by address.

Martin believes the trackng effort prevents illness and death.

“We’ve been able to identify certain apartment buildings that had six or seven cases, some had 15 or 16 cases, and we targeted them for pop-up testing,” Martin said. “We’ve had building managers go door to door, telling people that testing is available right now, right outside the building, and to come down. We’ve been able to identify asymptomatic people and stop COVID from spreading further.”

Pop-up testing has a ripple effect, he said. “It heightens sensitivity in an apartment building. People become more vigilant. I think we’ve saved lives because of it,” Martin said. “I truly believe data analytics saves lives.”

That comes from a self-described data guy — Martin holds bachelor’s degrees in economics and biology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a master’s degree in business administration from Stanford University.

His data comes from the testing agencies, which report it to the state, which allows the city health director access. Martin hired a part-time data analyst to help break the numbers down by neighborhood. He creates some of the graphics himself.

‘Russian roulette’

“A community should know what goes on in the community,” Martin said. “If you are diligent, your chances of getting this virus go way down. If not, you are playing Russian roulette. We are trying to get people the medical assistance they need to protect themselves, their families, and our community.”

Martin livestreams the presentation at https://www.stamfordct.gov/stamford-videos/pages/stamford -live-stream at 6 p.m. each Tuesday. His office may switch it to YouTube, where the city has 5,000 followers.

The presentation uses charts to show what COVID-19 has been up to in Stamford since it struck in March.

The Dec. 1 presentation showed that, in late March and early April, when Stamford was the epicenter of the pandemic in Connecticut, there were 120 new reported cases per day.

Since mid-November, it’s hit the 100 mark three times.

There’s more evidence of the latest COVID creep. In early September, the seven-day average of new cases was about three. By Nov. 1 it was 27. By the end of November it had more than doubled to 58.

Another chart illustrates numbers of COVID patients at Stamford Hospital.

It ranged from one to seven patients in August and September. The range in October was three to 23. By November it was 18 to 38.

Athird chart shows the number of deaths: one in August; two in September; eight in November.

In total, there have been 216 Stamford deaths, more than any other city in Connecticut. Waterbury follows with 204 deaths, and Hartford with 192.

Economic edge

Breaking down the data paints a picture of where COVID is most successful, Martin said.

“The neighborhood numbers show that high density is not by itself the only metric that matters. It’s also related to socioeconomics,” the mayor said. “Apartment buildings at the lower end of the economic spectrum are more affected. It’s not happening as much in high-end apartments. We found that those buildings are being diligent about their gyms and elevators. Other buildings are doing nothing.”

He wants to break down the data even more.

“We don’t know what’s really happening in the two- to five-family homes. We have not been able to track that yet,” Martin said. “It may show us that the virus isn’t spreading so much from apartment B to apartment C, but between family members. That would be good to know.”

Martin said data has helped him make better decisions for the city. In the spring, for instance, other mayors were closing parks. Martin did not.

“Our data showed that being in a park was not a vulnerability,” he said. “It was good to keep them open because they provide an outlet when people are cooped up.”

Data also showed that there is less spread within school buildings. The incidence of cases in schools was 1.3 percent, according to Martin’s numbers. In the city’s general population it was 1.9 percent.

The latest data shows 238 COVID cases in the schools, and that 822 students or staff members have been in quarantine from school-related exposure.

“Spread can be controlled,” Martin said. ‘The data helps us make certain we have a better education model.”

He’s anxious about what the numbers will be for the Dec. 8 presentation, which will include Thanksgiving, Martin said.

During that presentation he plans to provide information on how vaccines will be distributed in the coming weeks, since “those are the questions people are asking,” Martin said.

He hopes more people will tune in and have a look at the numbers, Martin said.

“Public health,” he said, “still depends on the actions of each individual.”