Working toward less crime, more public safety in 2021
COVID-19 has created both challenges and opportunities for Connecticut’s criminal justice system. Accurate analysis and data-driven planning can combine to continue our state’s extraordinary decadelong reduction in crime.
As has been the case elsewhere in the nation since March, 2020, shootings and murders are up in Connecticut’s cities. There are many theories about why this is, but the most convincing ones attribute the sudden uptick to a combination of two factors: COVID-19 and the killing of George Floyd. First, gun violence prevention initiatives like Connecticut’s Project Longevity rely on frequent face-to-face meetings between police, community leaders and high-risk individuals. The pandemic all but stopped those 10 months ago, and the predictable results ensued. Second, the George Floyd killing and subsequent national outrage undermined police-community relations and may have negatively impacted police responses in neighborhoods most afflicted with gun violence.
The good news is that other types of crime, property and violent alike, continued a steady downward trend in almost every state during the first six months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. FBI data released in September showed that murders were up almost 15 percent nationwide, but other types of violent crime like robbery were down significantly. Property crime also declined 7.8 percent . Larceny was down 9.9 percent and burglaries decreased 7.8 percent . Motor vehicle thefts increased 6.2 percent .
Among other things, these trends highlight the importance of intensive violence prevention strategies that rely on consistent and targeted personal relationships in the community. Although no person would have wished for a semi-lockdown of our state to test this theory, one reassuring side effect of this virus is the knowledge that gun related crime should decline as soon as our front-line prevention folks can resume their important work in person.
Connecticut’s criminal courts are another story. Since March, daily dockets in our busiest courts have shrunk to the bare minimum. In some instances, courts like those in Bridgeport and New Haven are processing less than 25 percent of their normal 300 to 400 cases per day. The result: an accumulated backlog that is sure to grow until there is widespread COVID-19 vaccination, late summer at the earliest. Even then, it’s likely that the long lines of defendants waiting for an in-person chat with a prosecutor will be a thing of the past.
Despite a steady decline in the number of arrests and new court cases over the last decade, it appears quite likely that low-level criminal cases will be dropped in a wholesale fashion in order to allow for the more serious, dangerous offenders to be prioritized. Further complicating matters, accused persons who have been unable to post bail are beginning to assert their right to a “speedy trial.” Connecticut law guarantees a trial within eight months of arrest, with some exceptions.
Finally, because of COVID-19 there are 3,300 fewer prisoners today than there were on March 1. Almost no one has been admitted to prison with a new sentence, a direct result of empty courtrooms. But, it’s worth noting that Connecticut’s incarcerated population had already dropped by almost 8,000 prior to the pandemic, prompting the closure of a number of correctional facilities. The question facing state policymakers is whether these numbers will rise significantly once the crisis is behind us. My guess is that they will not. A steady decline in the number of reported crimes in our state, resulting arrests, convictions and new prison admissions seems likely to continue.
By late 2021 we should expect to see a downsized correctional system, evidence-based triage in our courts aimed at deflecting less serious matters back to community-based solutions and law enforcement professionals better equipped to deliver the result we all want; less crime and more public safety.
New leaders in Washington are expected to send ample resources to states and cities in the months to come, and . Connecticutis well positioned to take advantage of this unique moment in our nation’s history.