Report: CT will near record employment by next spring
A state economist released job projections on Tuesday that suggest Connecticut will rebound from the pandemic economy to approach record employment by the spring of 2022 — with a possible assist from New York, as some workers relocate to its smaller neighbor.
Using economic modeling formulas, the Connecticut Department of Labor is projecting the state’s employment to rebound 13.5 percent by next spring from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020.
A DOL economist sees Connecticut in the midst of a recovery in which employers will have added more than 208,000 jobs over two years through the spring of 2022.
Krzyzek notes his job projections could be influenced negatively by COVID-19 vaccination rates and any emerging viral variants that threaten health.
But both Krzyzek and DOL economist Patrick Flaherty noted that Connecticut could see a lift if New York City employers shift jobs to Connecticut as some families relocate during the pandemic, producing a possible boost in school hiring as well.
“The significant economic stimulus policies conducted last year and currently underway will likely continue to avoid the prolonged economic downturn that was feared a year ago,” Krzyzek wrote in the study. “Other behavioral shifts such as permanent widespread adoption of remote work could alter many areas of the economy.”
As of March, Connecticut’s official unemployment rate was 8.3 percent of the workforce. But the state’s “U-6” unemployment rate was 15.1 percent, factoring in those looking for work as well as individuals who have given up the search, and those electing to make ends meet by taking jobs that pay far less than their accustomed earnings.
Restaurants, caterers and drinking establishments are one sector counting heavily on a resumption of business-asusual. Krzyzek projects the Connecticut industry will have added 57,000 jobs statewide over two years, a 71 percent increase from April 2020. Since the start of this year, the food and accommodations sector has seen among the biggest reductions in workers receiving unemployment assistance, at nearly 18 percent in line with construction and education and only slightly behind the gain for the arts and leisure sector.
As of Monday, dining establishments and caterers can apply for grants covering amounts lost in the pandemic of anywhere from $1,000 to $5 million from a $28.6 billion Restaurant Revitalization Fund that falls under the stewardship of the U.S. Small Business Administration. Proprietors must provide detailed tax and financial information, including whether they received funding under the Paycheck Protection Program.
On a Tuesday tour of General Dynamics Electric Boat in Groton, Gov. Ned Lamont referenced Connecticut’s free community college program as “making it easier for people to get back in the game,” in his words.
“A lot of folks have been out of work for a long time,” Lamont said. “We’ve got to give them the confidence to get back to work. I think more are going back to work every week, but we’ve got a way to go.”
In his own remarks, U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney, D-2, noted the need for state and federal programs to help workers switch careers from industries that were quick to shed jobs during the pandemic. President Biden is committing $48 billion in apprenticeship programs and other ways to help employers fill jobs with qualified workers.
Courtney cited the impact of apprenticeships in helping the shipyard keep up with a major hiring push to build a new fleet of ballistic missile submarines, and potentially to help people slot into new careers like information technology after losing their livelihoods during the pandemic.
“We’ve never been able to size up [apprenticeship] to the point where we could spread the benefits, not just in defense manufacturing but in all sectors, whether it’s health care, finance, [or] IT,” Courtney said. “Now we actually have the tools ... to meet the moment in terms of coming out of this recession, and a lot of dislocated workers looking for what’s next in life. This is the pathway — this is how we do it.”
Also on hand in Groton on Tuesday was Marty Walsh, secretary of labor in the Biden cabinet. Walsh gave his own take based on his experiences as mayor of Boston, and before that as a labor organizer in the building trades.
“We have an opportunity ... to reevaluate what we do as employers and [with] employment — not the same-old, same-old,” Walsh said. “How do we do this in the tech industry? Many of those jobs you don’t necessarily need a college degree for, but you do need some specific training.”