There’s more than one way to lose a campaign
If all your election-related news comes from Republican emails, you might think there are only two congressional races in Connecticut this year.
Some recent subject lines include:
⏩ “56% of Americans face financial hardship, thanks to Courtney & Hayes’ reckless spending”
⏩ “Courtney & Hayes’ American Rescue Plan sent stimulus checks to death row inmates”
⏩ “Will Courtney and Hayes stand up to Biden on student loan cancellation?”
Jim Himes must be wondering what he has to do to get namechecked in some outraged emails.
Joe Courtney, of Connecticut’s Second District, and Jahana Hayes, in the Fifth, are the members of the state delegation deemed most at risk of being the first Democrat to lose a statewide or federal race in Connecticut since 2006, and it makes a certain amount of sense. Hayes is the least-tenured member, having served two terms, and Courtney represents the most rural part of the state, one that would appear on paper to be ripe for the Republican picking.
Whether it happens remains to be seen, but both incumbents are considered favorites as Election Day draws nearer.
Himes, who has represented the Fourth District since first winning his seat in 2008, has long disappeared from the national battleground radar. He hasn’t been considered a likely target for an upset since at least 2014, and this in a district that before he took office had been represented by Republicans for decades. The leftward shift in the southwestern part of the state has shown no signs of abating, and the Trumpled drift of the Republican Party into conspiracy-land has all but ceded the party’s chances of winning in this former bastion of GOP power.
The southwestern corner, which comprises most of Himes’ Fourth District, is the richest and best-educated part of the state. Republicans can win local races, but even communities once synonymous with the party are now regularly voting blue. Since it’s also the only part of the state showing much in the way of population growth, it doesn’t speak well to the chances of Republicans statewide in the near term.
Himes’ Republican opponent, to her credit, is not following all her party’s national trends. Jayme Stevenson is former first selectman of Darien, and she has several times gone after Himes on cultural issues, which is no surprise. What is somewhat surprising is that she’s launching these attacks from the left.
Stevenson says on her website she was one of 400 Republicans, libertarians, conservatives and independents who have urged Congress to pass the Respect for Marriage Act. It wasn’t long ago that same-sex marriage was considered a settled issue, but as the current Supreme Court has shown, precedent doesn’t count for much. Three justices who opposed the ruling that made same-sex marriage legal nationwide still sit on the court, and other right-leaning members have joined them. It’s not far-fetched to think this issue could arise again.
Stevenson also went after Himes because Congress has not voted to codify abortion rights, which have now been curtailed nationally with the overturning of Roe v. Wade. “Even if it means standing up to my own party, I will fight to ensure that abortion is safe, legal, and done with the support of qualified medical professionals,” she says.
Himes is also a strong supporter of abortion rights and marriage equality and does not control what the U.S. Senate does, for whatever that’s worth.
If nothing else, this is an interesting strategy for a Republican facing an extreme uphill climb. But it also doesn’t make much sense due to the limits faced by individual members of Congress.
A Republican gubernatorial candidate attacking a Democrat from the left could make some headway, because once in office that governor would have plenty of room to govern in a manner befitting the campaign.
Say Bob Stefanowski came out tomorrow in favor of a $20 minimum wage. (Note: Bob Stefanowski is not going to do that.) He could maybe shake up his race and pull some votes from people who think Ned Lamont is too much of a centrist. And then once in office, there’d be an opportunity to work with a Democratic legislature to make it happen.
Governors have immense power, even if they don’t always use it.
That’s not the case for members of Congress. They are not powerless, but they also do not set national policy on abortion rights or marriage. Stevenson, if elected, would be one more vote on the side of a party that is actively hostile to her positions, particularly on abortion. No matter the candidate’s views, Fourth District voters who consider abortion a top issue would have a hard time justifying a vote for a Republican in this race.
Sometimes, the party matters more than the candidate.
Still, it’s better than what some campaigns have to offer. There’s nothing in the Fourth District about liberals trying to “destroy the nuclear family,” like the Republican Senate candidate is offering. If you’re likely to lose, at least keep your dignity intact.