Choices looming
Heat weigh draft, roster options.
MIAMI — The NBA draft will not happen in a vacuum, especially because of the vortex that will follow.
That makes these coming days and weeks one intertwined process for the Miami Heat, with free agency to start July 1.
In less than a week, the Heat could be without both a starting shooting guard and a starting small forward, if Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng allow opt-in deadlines Monday to pass without action.
There also is the chance of tax-saving trades of Chris “Birdman” Andersen and Mario Chalmers, and possibly even others, in the interim.
That makes Thursday’s draft, and the Heat’s No. 10 selection, about more than a single moment for Pat Riley and his staff. Or does it? Step back just one year to the 2014 draft, when the Heat’s draft brain trust was captivated by Swiss power forward Clint Capela, whom you may recall from his moments of significance for the Houston Rockets during this season’s playoffs.
But with free agency looming, an appeasement instead was made, with Shabazz Napier selected. There has been and will be denial about whether the pick was made to placate LeBron James. But the result was the player pitched by James was the player picked by the Heat.
At the intersection of the draft and free agency. Where the Heat again stand. With Wade and Deng secured, it would be far easier for the Heat to think big, perhaps Myles Turner, Frank Kaminsky or Willie Cauley-Stein, should he fall. Such a selection would provide short-term flex-
ibility should Birdman be dealt, and long-term insurance should Hassan Whiteside’s free agency next summer take him in another direction or beyond the stratosphere of fiscal sanity.
But with the uncertainly concerning Wade and Deng, the Heat could enter free agency with a depth chart that could have James Ennis at small forward and Tyler Johnson at shooting guard.
Yes, the same wing combo that in just over a week will be featured on the Heat’s summer-league roster in Orlando going head to head against what’s-his-name and who’s-that.
And that could turn the focus to a wing-restoration program, potentially toward Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre or Devin Booker.
This is where separation of power would come in handy, similar to how a coach thinks about personnel only in the moment, while a general manager is forced to take the long view.
The Heat’s collegiate scouting staff of Chet Kammerer, Adam Simon and Keith Askins have routinely unearthed gems in recent years, when the picks came at far more challenging spots, landing late contributors such as Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole and even Ennis.
But with the dive back into the lottery, there also has to be a long view. No, not as far as mere development of the eventual draft pick, but of reducing as many risk factors as possible, be it Johnson’s questionable jumper, Oubre’s lack of polish, Turner’s questionable gait.
For this simple reason: Such appearances are about to become the exception for the Heat. Not just lottery appearances, but any first-round appearances.
While the lottery results allowed the Heat to retain their Top 10 pick, the debt remains due to the Philadelphia 76ers. There also are a pair of first-round picks owed to the Phoenix Suns for Goran Dragic, regardless of whether the guard stays (he will) or not in free agency. In essence, first-round picks are about to become reduced to an every-other-year experience for the Heat for the balance of the decade. So, to sum up: Pat Riley has to work with better intel than his team operated with a year ago, when it comes to what might follow after the draft.
Riley’s scouting staff has to identify a prospect who can contribute in the short run, thrive in the long term.
The Heat absolutely have to make something out of their No. 10 draft slot.
Nothing that happens Thursday for the Heat will come in a vacuum.
A year ago, the draft started a process that sucked the life out of a season. This year, a franchise future rests on taming the ensuing vortex.