Economists have trouble predicting future events
A recent letter to the editor claimed we are heading to financial ruin within 10 years, based on a forecast from Congressional Budget Office.
Economic forecasts are no better than guesses. Economists are very good at telling us what happened yesterday, but have a very poor record predicting the future.
In fact, numerous studies have shown you would have done better flipping a coin — where the odds of success are 50:50 — than listening to “economic forecasts.”
The consensus forecast last year for 2015 was economic growth of more than 3 percent, an increase in inflation and a rise in interest rates: They are batting 1.000: wrong 3 for 3.
Since economists cannot predict what will be happening 12 months in the future, I give little credence to forecasts 10 years out.
Barry Rabinowitz, Plantation