Who has the edge?
Patriots claim advantage across boards
When Dolphins run
RB Lamar Miller (812 yards rushing, 4.6 yards per carry, eight TDs) needs to play a big role in the offense to take pressure off the passing game. Miller is 188 yards from becoming the first Dolphins RB with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons since Ricky Williams (2002-03). The Dolphins might be without C Mike Pouncey (foot/ ankle) and that would be huge. But there’s a chance RT Ja’Wuan James (toe) returns. New England is No. 8 in the league in rushing defense (98.9 yards per game) while the Dolphins are No. 27 in rushing offense (93.3 yards per game), but most likely the Dolphins fall behind early and abandon the run.
Edge: Patriots
When Patriots run
New England RB Brandon Bolden (54 carries, 176 yards, 3.3 yards per carry) is new to the role after seasonending injuries to Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount. LT Sebastian Vollmer (ankle) might not play, which could reduce the effectiveness of the running game. New England is 29th in rushing offense (88.9 yards per game), but the Dolphins are 30th in rushing defense (129.9 yards per game). You’d think the Dolphins would have an advantage here, but that likely won’t be the case. The Dolphins’ run defense has been incredibly unreliable.
Edge: Patriots
When Dolphins pass
QB Ryan Tannehill (22 TDs, 12 INTs, 87.1 passer rating) has been sacked 44 times, which is tied for most in the NFL. New England is second in the league in sacks at 48. That’s a bad combination. And if Pouncey, the team’s only Pro Bowl selection, doesn’t play the situation is worse. WR Jarvis Landry (104 receptions, 1,085 yards, four TDs) will be targeted frequently. But with WR Rishard Matthews (ribs) unlikely to play, the passing game loses a valuable target. We’ll see if WR DeVante Parker (21 receptions, 388 yards, two TDs) can become a factor. The Dolphins must keep an eye on DE Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks) and DE Jabaal Sheard (8.0 sacks) as well as DE Rob Ninkovich (6.5 sacks).
Edge: Patriots
When Patriots pass
QB Tom Brady (36 TDs, seven INTs, 103.1 passer rating) remains the magician he’s been for more than a decade. And TE Rob Gronkowski (70 receptions, 1,158 yards, 11 TDs) remains a force. WRs Danny Amendola (63 receptions, 631 yards, three TDs) and Julian Edelman (61 receptions, 692 yards, seven TDs) missed last week’s game. Edelman (foot) won’t play Sunday. Amendola (knee) is questionable. But it probably won’t make much difference. The Dolphins’ pass defense is bad. They’ve allowed 31 TDs, tied for fourthmost in the NFL and their 29 sacks are tied for 27th in the league. DE Olivier Vernon (7.0 sacks) has been good at times, and DT Ndamukong Suh (5.5 sacks) has been solid. SS Reshad Jones (five INTs) and CB Brent Grimes (four INTs) lead a leaky secondary. This is a mismatch even without Edelman and if Amendola is slowed or sidelined.
Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Dolphins P Matt Darr is No. 3 in the NFL at 47.6 yards per punt while K Andrew Franks is 11-of-13 on FGs and 31-of-34 on XPs. Landry is No. 9 in the league in punt returns at 9.5 yards per return. KOR Damien Williams is 14th in the league at 21.8 yards per return. New England K Stephen Gostkowski is among the NFL’s best. Gostkowski is No. 3 in FG percentage at 94.1 percent (32-of-34) and he’s a 51-of-51 on XPs. P Ryan Allen is No. 17 at 45.4 yards per punt. Amendola leads the NFL at 12.0 yards per punt return.
Edge: Patriots
Intangibles
New England is playing for homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. ...
The Patriots have lost two of their past five games. ...
The Dolphins have lost seven of their past 11 games. ...
The Dolphins are also fending off the weeklong distraction regarding tweets by Miko Grimes, the wife of the Dolphins cornerback, about Tannehill. ...
The Dolphins are 8-10 in December/ January games under Tannehill. ...
The Dolphins are 0-5 against the AFC East this season, including a 36-7 loss to New England in October, and could go winless in the division with a loss. Edge: Patriots
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 36, DOLPHINS 7