A boiling Mideast roils US plans
Saudi Arabia, Iran problems nix cooperation
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration’s key Middle East initiatives — ending Syria’s civil war, combating Islamic State and implementing the Iranian nuclear deal — could be undermined by the explosion of tensions between the region’s two powerhouses, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
A historically fraught rivalry between Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, previously fought through proxies, is more direct than ever and threatens to engulf the region in a new spiral of confrontations, analysts said.
In addition to igniting new rounds of fighting in Syria and Yemen, where the two countries back opposing sides, the dispute could play into the hands of Islamic State by further stoking the sectarian conflict it relies on as its main reason for existence, the analysts warned.
The flare-up comes at an awkward time for the Obama administration. The United Nations Security Council could decide soon whether Iran is entitled to easing of international sanctions, and a return to the global economy, under the controversial nuclear accord.
Saudi Arabia took the drastic measure of cutting diplomatic ties with Iran on Sunday after Shiite Muslims infuriated by the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia torched the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
The crisis widened Monday as Saudi allies Bahrain and Sudan also severed relations with Tehran. The United Arab Emirates, a major trading partner with Iran, withdrew its ambassador but did not break diplomatic ties.
“This exceptional step has been taken in the light of Iran’s continuous interference in the internal affairs of Gulf and Arab states, which has reached unprecedented levels,’’ the UAE said in a statement.
Riyadh also barred its citizens from traveling to Iran and suspended air traffic and other commercial relations, although it said Iranians would still be welcome to make the annual religious pilgrimage to Mecca, Islam’s holiest city.
Iran must behave “like a normal country” and not “a revolution,” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said, according to Reuters.
The Saudi kingdom’s decision last week to execute an outspoken Shiite cleric and government critic, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, along with 46 other dissidents and militants, apparently caught Washington by surprise. The Obama administration had worked hard to bring Riyadh and Tehran into nascent negotiations aimed at finding a political solution to the civil war in Syria.
Iran has backed Syrian President Bashar Assad, while Saudi Arabia is supporting some of the armed groups fighting to oust him.
U.N.-backed peace talks are still expected to start this month, but the longshot prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear dimmer.
“It was essential to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran together, and there was some progress,” said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “That is all sort of shot.”
Josh Earnest, the White House spokesman, acknowledged Monday that the escalating conflict poses problems for U.S. efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Syria.
The administration is urging both sides to “deescalate” their conflict and “not further inflame” tensions, Earnest said.
Secretary of State John Kerry spoke by phone Monday to his Iranian counterpart and was attempting contact with the Saudis, spokesman John Kirby said.
Kirby said the U.S. had raised concerns about the Saudi legal process that sanctioned the mass execution.
Riyadh and its Gulf Arab allies view Iran with growing distrust and anger, and worry that the U.S.-led nuclear deal brokered in Vienna last summer will allow Tehran to end its isolation without giving up its nuclear ambitions.
Iran stands to gain access to more than $60 billion in frozen funds as soon as this month, and be allowed to resume exports of oil.
A more powerful Iran, combined with low prices for the oil that supports the Saudi economy, and the unsuccessful war Saudi Arabia is waging against what it claims are Iranianbacked Shiite militias in Yemen, have pushed the kingdom to act more aggressively.
Saudi leaders did not publicly oppose the nuclear deal, but experts say they have lost confidence in the United States’ willingness to oppose what they consider Iranian aggression across the region.
“The Saudis have their own agenda, which they are carrying out without regard for what we say or do or need,” said Aaron David Miller, a veteran U.S. diplomat in the Middle East now with the nonpartisan Wilson Center in Washington.
Tracy Wilkinson reported from Washington and Nabih Bulos from Dubai; Tribune Washington Bureau’s Christi Parsons contributed as did special correspondent Ramin Mostaghim from Tehran.