Aiming high may have laid Trump low in Iowa
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Donald Trump’s presence is drawing unprecedented attention to the Republican presidential contest. But after careful consideration, many new Iowa voters turned to his rivals instead.
The political newcomer logged a second-place finish in Iowa’s kickoff caucuses, performing far better than anyone could have imagined before he jumped into the race seven months ago. The Manhattan developer managed to pull in more than 45,000 votes, far more than 2012 caucus winner Rick Santorum, who many view as being more compatible with the state’s conservative electorate.
But Trump’s own decision to escalate expectation, coupled by an outmaneuvered ground game, set his supporters up for disappointment.
“We’re going to have a tremendous victory,” Trump told voters at his final rally in Cedar Rapids before voting began.
“A lot of the news commentators …. they say, ‘Wouldn’t you better off if you just said we want to do well in Iowa?’ ” he said. “And I said, ‘Not really. ... I want to win Iowa, I don’t want to do well. I want to win.’ ”
The misconception — shared byTrump and much of the media — was that a boost in voter turnout would disproportionately benefit Trump and his rival Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side.
The race did attract large numbers of newcomers, with nearly 187,000 voters turning out at caucus sites, where there was standing roomonly at some sites.
But in the end, according to an entrance poll of those arriving at caucus sites conducted by Edison Research for The Associated Press and television networks, many of those newcomers voted for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida’s Marco Rubio. And of the 45 percent of caucusgoers who said they decided who to support in the finalweek, 29 percent supported Rubio, 27 percent supported Cruz and just 14 percent supported Trump.
Among themwasDavenport’s Dwight Reese, 55, who’d been torn between Trumpand Cruz earlier this week. In the end, he broke for Cruz.
“I got kind of caught up in the Trump phenomenon,” saidReese. He said the fact Trump hasn’t always held conservative positions had given him pause. Cruz, he said, “stands for everything I believe in. I believe I can trust him.”
It was that precisely the messaging that dominated anti-Trump ads questioning the billionaire’s conservative credentials in the days before voting began.
Also cited by voters was Trump’s decision toskip the final GOP debate before caucus day because of a spat with debate host FoxNews.
“To skip itwas not a good idea,” Monica Baier, 47, who caucused for Trump said. She added that she was disappointed by the loss.
There were also signs thatTrump’s nontraditional operation had been outmaneuvered.
While Cruz modeled his campaign after past Iowa winners, visiting all of the state’s 99 counties and courting influential evangelical and conservative leaders, Trump visited less frequently. Instead ofworking towoo undecided voters one-on-one, Trump stuck to the large rally format, the hallmark of his campaign.
In the week leading to the caucuses, therewas also a distinct feeling on the ground that his supportwas cooling. There were empty seats at rallies in Waterloo and Sioux City; audiences were dominated by out-ofstate and undecided voters rather than hardcore fans.
Voters interviewed across the state also frequently reported having received no outreach fromthe campaign, suggesting the ground game Trump’s team had favored was not as effective as his rivals’. Indeed, among the 36 percent of Iowa caucusgoers who said theywere contacted by someone asking them to come out to support their candidate, Cruz had a 31 percent to 23 percent advantage over Trump.
Nonetheless, Trump and his supporters are downplaying the impact as they turn their attention to New Hampshire, which votes Tuesday.
Trump delivered a gracious concession speech Monday night, but by Tuesday afternoon was tweeting that, “The media has not covered my long-shot great finish in Iowa fairly. Brought in record voters and got second highest vote total in history!”
Trump supporter Karen Riccelli, 60, of Des Moines, said she was disappointed but didn’t think the loss would have lasting impact.
“I think his supporters are going to stay with him. This is the first one in the country,” she said. “We’ve got a longways to go.”