Miners not out of the dark yet
Reality tempers optimism in coal country after ruling
MADISON, W.Va. — The U.S. Supreme Court has delivered a commodity that is hard to come by in coal country— hope.
Hope that by blocking a new federal rule cutting power plant emissions, the court has turned the tide after years of regulations and declining production.
Hope that the jobs that once brought goodwages to people who desperately needed them will come back.
But these hopes have been tempered by another, grimmer thought — that this development might be too little, too late. That it’s false hope.
For the long-suffering communities that depend on coal, last week’s Supreme Court ruling was seen as a rare victory. The justices ruled 5-4 to freeze the Environmental ProtectionAgency’s plan to reduce the nation’s carbon dioxide emissions 32 percent by 2030 while legal challenges against the regulations are pending.
Those regulations, a key component of PresidentBarack Obama’s plan to fight climate change, focus on cutting pollution fromcoalfired power plants and are viewed as a possible knockout blow to a staggering industry.
The high court’s surprising decision to issue a stay even before the Court of Appeals heard the case was seen by many as an indication itwas hostile to the regulations.
To Joshua Johnson, 29, the Supreme Court’s ruling was as welcome to him as a sunny day in spring in southern West Virginia. He still wears his Independence Coal mine jacket two years after hewas laid off, as he struggles financially to take care of his three kids full time since his divorce.
“I’d love to get back underground today,” he said. “Coal will open back up. I think once we get a new president, coal will come back up. I think he was just so against coal.”
For elected leaders of both parties in coal-producing states, “Obama” has been the easy answer to why the coal jobs are going away. So it’s no wonder the Supreme Court’s rulingwas hailed by politicians as a “real ray of hope.”
“Things are not going to change overnight, but we have an opportunity to have a comeback now,” West Virginia Attorney General PatrickMorrisey said.
But the reality is more complicated. Pointing out that free market forces — higher mining costs, decreasing demand and cheaper natural gas — are dragging production down doesn’t pack as much of a punch as roasting the White House’s initiatives.
U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers, whose district comprises most of coal-producing eastern Kentucky, acknowledged the Supreme Court’s action may not be enough, even if the courts overturn the EPA regulations.
“Certainly the decision is favorable. But much of the damage has already been done,” saidRogers, the longtime chairman of theHouse Appropriations Committee. “Many of these coal-fired power plants have already switched away from coal. Anditwould be very expensive to switch back.”
Some of the nation’s largest utilities started switching before Obama’s Clean Power Plan was announced two years ago. They saw how the long-term trends stacked against the industry: cheap natural gas, a declining global market and decades-old pollution laws just coming into play.
Meanwhile, output from coal mines across the U.S. continues to drop. Production is projected to total 834 million tons this year. That would be the smallest amount mined since 1983, and a 17 percent drop from two years ago, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
AmericanElectricPower, which has 5.4 million customers in the South and Midwest, generated 74 percent of its power using coal a decade ago. That’s down to 51 percent, spokeswoman MelissaMcHenry said.
“The companywas based in coal country. The fuel was there,” McHenry said. “Now things have changed, and we’re looking to diversify our fuel mix.”
AEP will retire 11 coal plants by the end of 2016 in a process that started last year. The utility wanted to avoid the cost of retrofitting the aging facilities and is putting its money instead into alternatives such as electricity from natural gas and wind turbines.
Duke Energy, the largest electriccompany intheU.S., serving 7.3 million customers across the Southeast and the Midwest, has spent $9 billion over the past decade to scrap a quarter of its coal-burning capacity and build eight new natural gas plants in North Carolina, Florida and Indiana, along with twomore efficient coal plants.
Similar changes are underway in the West. Washington-based Puget Sound Energy is pushing legislation that would enable it to close down two of the four power-generating units at one of the largest coal plants west of the Mississippi, the Colstrip Steam Electric Station in eastern Montana that the utility co-owns.
Despite the trends, industry supporters say the stay of the Obama administration’s plan prevents an evenharsher future for coal, at least temporarily.
If implemented, the federal rule would drive down mining production fromthe largest coal state, Wyoming, between 20 and 45 percent by 2030, according to a 2015 report by the Center for Energy Economics and Public Policy at the University ofWyoming.
“Anybody who tells you that the Clean Power Plan wasn’t all that important anyway either doesn’t understand the industry or is being a little disingenuous,” said Jeff Holmstead, a former EPA official turned coal industry lobbyist. “There still may be retirements in coming years, but it will be nothing like what would have happened.”