Trump will have difficulty gaining Hispanic voters

Finallywe have fresh polls that provide information about the Cuban-American and Hispanic voters.

One poll conducted by DarioMoreno an associate professor at Florida International University says that 37 percent of CubanAmerican voters supportRepublican billionaireDonald Trump. That is more than the 31percent who support Hillary Clinton for president.

Yet it is much lower than the traditional massive vote forRepublican candidates in Miami-Dade County.

Another poll— this one nationally conducted by Latino Decisions, a firm that in the past hasworked forClinton— determined that 73 percent ofHispanic voters in Florida have a “very unfavorable” opinion ofTrump. Is this surprising? No. In fact, the polls in Miami-Dade and Florida are in linewith traditional Hispanic voting patterns nationally.

This is very important forTrump. Hispanics traditionally prefer Democratic presidential candidates by a 70 percent margin. Trump is not likely to improve on these numbers. In fact, he might make themworse.

For the purpose of this column let’s forget about the Cuban-American vote. This group of voters has a particular voting pattern seldom in linewith the larger Hispanic vote on a national basis.

The Hispanic vote is important, because it nowrepresents 17 percent of the United States population. It is 1percent larger than the African-American vote, and each year the margin that separates the two is growing.

There are millions of Hispanic voters in theUnited States.

What can be said with certainty is the Hispanic experience in this country is closely linked to the particular experience of where they, or their parents came from.

For example, Puerto Ricans inNew York have a tradition of votingDemocratic in more than 98 percent of elections. Those Puerto Ricanswho live along the Interstate 4 corridor, running from Daytona Beach, through Orlando to Tampa-St Petersburg, are a different voter. Many have voted in the past for Republican candidates. And in other elections they have cast their ballots for Democrats.

In fact, Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida have become muchmore the bellwether in determining if Florida goes forRepublican or Democratic candidates than Cuban-Americans.

Another ethnic group in theNew York-Connecticut area, those of Dominican roots, vote almost unanimously for Democratic candidates. It is the most loyal group of Democratic voters in the nation.

That leaves uswith Central Americans, South Americans andMexicans.

Mexican-Americans are for the most part likely to vote forDemocrats. Many, even those born in theUnited States, have someone in their familywho at one point werewas an undocumented immigrant.

PresidentRonaldReagan allowed the nationalization of 4 million undocumented people who lived in the country in 1986.

Having a close tie with someone who came to this country without the proper immigration papersmakesMexicanAmericans very pro-Democratic candidates.

And all of this is of particular importance to oneRepublican candidate— Trump. He made it clear in his run for the Republican nomination hewould build a very high fence along all of theU.S.-Mexican border and thatMexico will pay for it.

While thiswasTrump’s first appeal to the general voting public in theUnited States and it helped him become a likely Republican candidate in the fall, itwill not help him among Hispanic voters in theNovember election.

Hispanics, with African-Americans, are two of the largest Democratic Party voting ethnic groups in the country.

Many in the past have announced prematurely the demise of theTrump candidacy. By writing this, I run the risk of joining that group of pundits who said Trumpwas a fad andwould soon fade. They have been provenwrong.

Maybe I will have to eatmywords in November. So readers can clip this columnand remindme aboutmy mistake if Trumpwins a significant number of Hispanic voters— say 50 percent or higher.

Guillermo I. Martinez lives in South Florida. guimar123@gmail.com