Confronting the real dangers of a Donald Trump presidency
It’s time to focus laser-like attention on the meaning of a DonaldTrump presidency for America’s security.
Until now, the presumption that Trumpwouldn’t win or doesn’t really mean what he says has led to insufficient scrutiny of howhis presidency would threaten our safety. Many security experts —including leadingRepublicans— have raised concerns, but their protests haven’t risen to the level of the danger.
The time for such complacency is past. Trump brags he will make America “strong again” but the policies he promoteswould do exactly the opposite: emboldening our enemies, undercutting our allies and destroying America’s clout in theworld.
So let us imagine what America’s security situation could look like in 2020, after one term ofTrump as our commander-in-chief.
Europe: Our most important alliance, with Europe’s democracies, lies in tatters, afterTrump’s “America First” policy accelerated the break-up of the EuropeanUnion and the demise ofNATO.
Trump tipped his hand in 2016 with an astonishing campaign appearance— inMississippi— alongsideNigel Farage, the former leader of England’s far-right Independence Party, who led a successful campaign for Britain to “Brexit” the EuropeanUnion. As president, Trump openly supported Europe’s other far-right (and racist) parties as theyworked to destroy the political union that keptWestern Europe stable for decades.
Having also declared his disdain forNATO, Trump closed downour bases in Germany and England (aswell as in Japan and SouthKorea). He had claimed during the campaign that our allies didn’t pay enough for our protection, tellingCNNthe benefit of those allianceswas “not big enough to bankrupt and destroy theUnited States.”
In reality, our Asian allies paid a huge chunk of the base costs in their countries, whileNATOallies paid lesser amounts. But the savings of relocating bases from Europe to Americawere minimal, sinceTrump didn’t want to disband the transferred military units. What the Donald also refused to considerwas the key importance of those bases in deterringRussia fromundercutting Western democracies (and China fromdoing likewise in Asia).
By 2020, Russia has become the dominant influence in Europe, nibbling at the Baltics and Poland and annexing half of Ukraine. Moscowcontinues to fund far-right European parties that support the Kremlin’s anti- American policies and its vision of authoritarian “democracy.”
This doesn’t disturb PresidentTrump, who had finally achieved his decade-long dream of building aTrump tower inMoscow, and has regular dinners with his buddy, Vladimir Putin. Trump nowhosts a reality show on theKremlin’s global mouthpieceRT(RussianTelevision), which had already started interviewingTrump during the 2016 election season and offered Farage his ownTVshowthe same year.
Asia: AfterTrump withdrew America’s forward Asian bases, China became the dominant player in Asia, taking firm control of many disputed islands and controlling the sea lanes. Deprived of theU.S. nuclear umbrella, Japan and SouthKorea have built nuclearweapons— which Trump said in the 2016 campaignwas fine by him.
The nuclear arms race in Asia grows ever more dangerous and could threatenU.S. territory, butTrump’s “America first” policy eliminated America’s critical role as a stabilizer. Meantime, U.S.-China enmity has soared asTrump kept his promise to slap huge tariffs on Beijing, starting a tradewar that has cost America millions of jobs.
The Middle East: Iran has gone nuclear. Soon after taking office, Trump kept his pledge to destroy the international treaty that had blocked any Iranian nuclear weapons for at least a decade, leavingTehran free to race right up to breakout capacity. Trump realized the cost of another Mideastwarwas too high, and Israel hesitated to go solo. America’s Gulf allies, realizingTrump had abandoned them, turned toMoscowfor protection.
Terror: Islamic terrorism has risen exponentially in theWest and in Israel, as intelligence cooperation has splintered within Europe and among formerNATO allies. Trump’s responses are to (1) trymuzzlingU.S. media criticism, after asking Putin for pointers, and (2) blaming everything on illegal immigrants, or other internal “traitors.” (However, he has been unable to deport the11 million or get an outragedMexico to pay for a wall.)
U.S. standing: Global respect and admiration for America have tanked, as the erraticTrump insults former friends and praises its adversaries. Nations no longer look to theUnited States as the exemplar of liberal democracy. Americans are less safe, butWashington has decreasing leverage to protect them.
PerhapsTrumpwon’t do half of what he’s pledged, but the risk is too great and the security threat too huge, dwarfing any of Hillary Clinton’s flaws. But for anyone still sitting on the fence in this election, the time to face up to the danger is now.