Expert: Storm models failed
It’s theweather, so it doesn’t always do what people think it might.
Thatwas the case with now-Tropical DepressionKarl onWednesday, which instead of strengthening as expected, thumbed its nose at hightech forecasting tools andweakened to a tropical depression.
But theweakeningwas thought to be temporary. Karl, which on Wednesday afternoonwas about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda and not a threat to theU.S., was still expected to become a hurricane, only later than This NASA-NOAA GOES satellite image taken Tuesday shows Tropical Storm Karl off the East Coast.
originally anticipated.
“Our earlier forecast did showKarl strengthening more quickly than it necessarily has,” said Michael Brennan, a senior hurricane specialist at the Miami-basedNationalHurricane Center.
“We are still forecasting it to become a hurricane aswe get later into theweek,” Brennan said.
According to another forecaster at the hurricane center, global forecasting models “totally failed” when it came to winds surrounding the storm.
Because wind shear -- which blows storms apart -- had been expected to weaken, Karl in turn had been expected to keep strengthening.
However, as ofWednesday, that wind shearwas still strong, which meant Karl had lost steam.
“Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting the upper-level winds surrounding Karl,” senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila wrote in a 5 a.m. Wednesday morning discussion posted on the hurricane center’swebsite. “The upper-low near Karl which unanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken is still strong and producing shear over the cyclone.”
As ofWednesday at 5 p.m., Karl’s maximum sustained wind speeds were 35 mph, belowthe 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm.
Expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday on a boomerang-shaped path, Karlwas forecast to return to tropical storm status over the next day and strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday afternoon. Itwas expected