Active storm season ahead

NOAA says warmer seas and weak El Nino may mean a wild 2017; but how accurate are they?

Brace yourself for awet andworry-filled summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-normal 2017 hurricane season with five to nine hurricanes (minimum 74mphwinds), of which two to four will be Category 3 or stronger( minimum 111 mph winds). The forecast calls for a total of 11 to 17 tropical systems (minimum 39mphwinds).

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs untilNov. 30.

The weakness or absence of storm-suppressing El Nino climate conditions, above-normal ocean surface temperatures and average or weaker vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic coast indicate it will be an active hurricane season, said Ben Friedman, actingNOAAadmin-

istrator.

Forecasters say there’s a 45 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season and only a 20 percent chance it will be below average.

By contrast, AccuWeather forecasters anticipate 10 named storms, with five becoming hurricanes and three storms of Category 3 or higher. They say that three named storms will make landfall in theU.S.

The outlook from Colorado StateUniversity hurricane researchers Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell predicts 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

April’s Tropical Storm Arlene was a rare preseason storm, but itwas also an indication of an active season ahead, Friedman said Thursday during a news conference at theNOAACenter for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.

“Our season outlook predicts a range of stormactivity in the entire six-month period across the Atlantic,” he said. “It does not predict when, where and how these storms might hit and if they will make landfall.”

Not since Hurricane Wilma slammed southern Florida in 2005 has a major storm of Category 3 or stronger made landfall in the U.S.

“Some may think that’s lucky,” he said. “But, in fact, tropical storms and hurricanes can be just as damaging and just as deadly.”

As an example, Friedman pointed to last year’s HurricaneMatthew, whichcaused storm surge flooding along the east coast fromFlorida to South Carolina.

“That caused $10 billion worth of damage and caused 34 deaths just in the United States,” he said. “In the Caribbean, another550ormore people were killed by that storm, making it one of the deadliest on record.”

In the 25 years sinceHurricane Andrew hit South Florida, forecasting accuracy has improved 65 percent, added Mary Erickson, National Weather Service deputy director.

A new weather satellite above the equator will move intoanorbitover theAtlantic coast this summer to give forecasters a more detailed view of storm formation that might threaten the U.S. and Caribbean.

High-definition hurricane and lightning mapping programs will enhance forecast accuracy, she said.

“Theprimarygoal of these improvements is to pinpoint where the biggest impacts are going to be,” she said.

NOAAis stressing personal preparations askeytominimizing the effect of the hurricane season.

“Just because it’s not amajor hurricane doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous, doesn’t mean it’s not deadly, doesn’t mean that we don’t need to be prepared for it,” Friedman said.